10.02.2023, 16:25
Nabiullina predicted the growth of the Russian economy in mid-2023
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS The head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the growth of quarterly GDP in annual terms will begin in mid-2023. According to her, lending to companies in banks is growing at double-digit rates. The head of the Central Bank said that inflation in Russia in January was most likely the highest since April 2022.
"As for the dynamics of GDP, quarterly dynamics are already positive in the third and fourth quarters. If we talk about annual indicators, then, in our opinion, GDP will move to a positive area in the middle of this year. As for the overall estimate of GDP for this year, we give a symmetrical range from minus 1% to plus 1%," Ms. Nabiullina said at a press conference (quoted by Interfax).
According to her, the improvement in the forecast of the Central Bank on the dynamics of the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2023 is explained by the refinement of estimates for previous periods and an increase in budget expenditures compared with October estimates.
Elvira Nabiullina noted that structural changes in the economy are manifested in the steady growth of output in some sectors and its reduction in others.
"The first ones include, for example, individual industries and construction, which are increasing volumes. The transport infrastructure is developing rapidly, where public investments are playing an increasingly important role," she said.
On February 10, the Bank of Russia left the key rate at 7.5% for the third time in a row. The regulator will make further decisions on the key rate, taking into account the dynamics of inflation. According to the Central Bank's forecast, annual inflation will be 5.0–7.0% in 2023 and 4% in 2024. The regulator estimated the decline in GDP by the end of 2022 at 2.5%. According to the regulator's forecast, the GDP growth rate will be –1–1% in 2023 and 0.5–2.5% in 2024. In 2025, the GDP indicator will grow by 1.5–2.5%.
"As for the dynamics of GDP, quarterly dynamics are already positive in the third and fourth quarters. If we talk about annual indicators, then, in our opinion, GDP will move to a positive area in the middle of this year. As for the overall estimate of GDP for this year, we give a symmetrical range from minus 1% to plus 1%," Ms. Nabiullina said at a press conference (quoted by Interfax).
According to her, the improvement in the forecast of the Central Bank on the dynamics of the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2023 is explained by the refinement of estimates for previous periods and an increase in budget expenditures compared with October estimates.
Elvira Nabiullina noted that structural changes in the economy are manifested in the steady growth of output in some sectors and its reduction in others.
"The first ones include, for example, individual industries and construction, which are increasing volumes. The transport infrastructure is developing rapidly, where public investments are playing an increasingly important role," she said.
On February 10, the Bank of Russia left the key rate at 7.5% for the third time in a row. The regulator will make further decisions on the key rate, taking into account the dynamics of inflation. According to the Central Bank's forecast, annual inflation will be 5.0–7.0% in 2023 and 4% in 2024. The regulator estimated the decline in GDP by the end of 2022 at 2.5%. According to the regulator's forecast, the GDP growth rate will be –1–1% in 2023 and 0.5–2.5% in 2024. In 2025, the GDP indicator will grow by 1.5–2.5%.
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