18.01.2024, 11:50
The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine was predicted to stop
Source: OREANDA-NEWS
OREANDA-NEWS The transit of Russian gas through Ukraine may be finally stopped in the near future, according to Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund. In a conversation with Lenta.ru" he admitted the possibility of such a development.
"The Americans will put pressure on Ukraine to finally block transit. There are not very large volumes left, about 42 million cubic meters per day. But they haven't completely blocked it yet, giving Europe a normal winter. Having lost these volumes, there will be an increase in prices and certain risks," the analyst said.
According to Igor Yushkov, the parties have mutual claims against each other under the contract, so formally both Kiev and Moscow can break the agreement at any time. The contract itself expires at the end of 2024, but it is not necessary to sign a new one to continue deliveries, the specialist added. This is due to the new procurement system that operates in Europe.
"A long-term contract is not needed. Gazprom, when it needs to, will simply go to the auction and take the volumes for transit that it needs — a day in advance, a month in advance. Of course, they can impose direct sanctions against Gazprom, that it is impossible to have economic relations with it, and then it will not be able to come to the auction," he concluded.
According to the head of the Austrian energy company OMV, Alfred Stern, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine may stop in 2024. According to him, the risk is associated with the fact that the pipelines pass through the territory where the fighting is taking place. In addition, the gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia expires at the end of 2024.
The contract between Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz was concluded in 2019 for five years. During this period, the Russian company should pump 225 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukraine, including 65 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 40 billion cubic meters each next year. Kiev has not allowed gas to be supplied through the LPR, as it does not control this territory. Moscow, in turn, reduced supplies, explaining that it could not pump the necessary volumes through an alternative route.
"The Americans will put pressure on Ukraine to finally block transit. There are not very large volumes left, about 42 million cubic meters per day. But they haven't completely blocked it yet, giving Europe a normal winter. Having lost these volumes, there will be an increase in prices and certain risks," the analyst said.
According to Igor Yushkov, the parties have mutual claims against each other under the contract, so formally both Kiev and Moscow can break the agreement at any time. The contract itself expires at the end of 2024, but it is not necessary to sign a new one to continue deliveries, the specialist added. This is due to the new procurement system that operates in Europe.
"A long-term contract is not needed. Gazprom, when it needs to, will simply go to the auction and take the volumes for transit that it needs — a day in advance, a month in advance. Of course, they can impose direct sanctions against Gazprom, that it is impossible to have economic relations with it, and then it will not be able to come to the auction," he concluded.
According to the head of the Austrian energy company OMV, Alfred Stern, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine may stop in 2024. According to him, the risk is associated with the fact that the pipelines pass through the territory where the fighting is taking place. In addition, the gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia expires at the end of 2024.
The contract between Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz was concluded in 2019 for five years. During this period, the Russian company should pump 225 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukraine, including 65 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 40 billion cubic meters each next year. Kiev has not allowed gas to be supplied through the LPR, as it does not control this territory. Moscow, in turn, reduced supplies, explaining that it could not pump the necessary volumes through an alternative route.
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