OREANDA-NEWS. The Ministry of Finance estimated budget losses from shocks in commodity markets, the newspaper Izvestia writes with reference to the draft budget for 2020–2022. In the worst case scenario, Urals oil prices will drop to $ 10 per barrel and remain at that level for ten years.

In the first year of falling prices to $ 10 per barrel, the budget will receive less than 5% of GDP. If, after this, oil doesn't go up in price for ten years, the treasury will lose income equal to 70% of GDP, the publication quoted the Finance Ministry. A scenario with a drop in oil to $ 10 per barrel is extremely unlikely, this is the most radical among the shock options for the development of the situation, says Alexander Suslin, head of the Fiscal Policy section of the Economic Expert Group.

“Calculating the damage in the event of an apocalypse is rather a purely technical task. Based on extremely low indicators, it's easier to assess the sensitivity of the economy to milder shifts in key markets”, said the expert. In her opinion, the negative effect of oil prices will smooth out the weakening of the national currency and the growth of budget revenues in ruble terms. The basic forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development assumes that in 2020 Urals oil prices will drop to $ 57 per barrel, and by 2024 to $ 53. At the same time, a conservative forecast assumes a fall to $ 42.5 in 2020 and an increase to $ 45.9 by 2024.

In the third quarter, Brent crude oil showed the largest drop in 2019 - by 8.7%. Experts attribute this to fears due to the aggravation of the trade war between China and the United States. Later, the situation stabilized. At the same time, in September there was an increase in oil prices, which began after the drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities.