OREANDA-NEWS. Growth in global oil demand may not resume in the next 30 years, even if policy on climate change does not tighten, British energy company BP wrote in its annual forecast to 2050, published on September 14.

BP’s 2020 outlook contains three scenarios for the energy industry over the next 30 years. Thus, the Rapid scenario provides for the adoption of measures that will increase the cost of greenhouse emissions for producers by 70 % compared to the level of 2018. The Net Zero scenario involves not only tightening climate policy, but also changing social and consumer behaviour with regard to energy use. In this scenario, carbon emissions should fall by 95 % by 2050. The Business-as-Usual scenario implies the continuation of the current trends without significant changes in global politics.

All three scenarios predict a drop in oil demand over the next three decades. Thus, under the Usual scenario, oil consumption will decrease by 10 % by 2050, under the Rapid scenario by 55 %, and under the Net Zero scenario by 80 %.