OREANDA-NEWS. The foreseen expansion of electricity generation sources in the Baltic countries, according to EU energy trends 2050, will result in fairly low dependence on electricity imports by 2020 and 2030, according to an analysis led by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) scientists.

Full integration into the European grid and market is a priority for the Baltic countries. Currently, the Baltic power system is connected to the Russian and Belarusian electricity grids. This situation improved with new connections to Finland, Sweden and Poland which raised the interconnectivity of the Baltic States with the EU electricity market to 22%.

The construction of new power lines and interconnectors to the European grid will improve the energy security of the region and the competition in the market. This transition is however a complex and onerous process.

The power generation landscape in the Baltics changed dramatically at the beginning of 2010, when the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (1500 MW) in Lithuania was shut down. It used to cover almost 40% of the overall power consumption of the Baltic countries. A new nuclear power plant in Visaginas (1350 MW) is under consideration, with an investment of about €7 billion  and a construction time of 10 years.

The JRC report shows that Lithuania's network infrastructure is adequate and can sustain a large quantity of imports. The Latvian power system enjoys more market advantages due to the high ratio of renewable energy (mainly hydro) in its electricity generation mix. Estonia relies on its own fossil oil shale and has the highest installed wind turbine capacity among the three Baltic States, but it does not have enough capacity to ensure the same strategic market position of Latvia.

Future nuclear generation in Visaginas can greatly improve the security of electricity supply in the Baltic States. Even without it, the Baltic States can still count on alternatives for power generation, but other measures like cross-border interconnectors, storage capacity and demand response may be needed to improve energy security.