13.04.2016, 11:45
Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker Update
OREANDA-NEWS. Sberbank Investment Research, the research department of Sberbank CIB1, is publishing its fifteenth survey of the pan-Russian consumer, the Sberbank CIB Ivanov2 Consumer Confidence Tracker, which monitors consumer spending, savings and confidence trends across the country.
The fifteenth tracker crept up to -22% in 1Q16 from -24% in 4Q15.
The main findings of the survey are shown below:
* Q-o-Q improvements were recorded across all individual index components. The Ivanovs' 12m personal wealth expectations improved 2 pp Q-o-Q, marking a bottom in 4Q15 and matching the year-ago level (-1%). Similarly, the 12m forward country wealth outlook picked up 3 pp Q-o-Q to 7%, a level last seen in 1Q15. This can probably be attributed to the consistent slowdown in inflation and easing exchange rate fears. Meanwhile, the percentage of Ivanovs who regard the Russian economy as shaky rose Q-o-Q to 86%, supporting our view that people do not expect a quick and easy improvement in the macro situation.
* The unemployment ratio rose to 12.0% from 11.0% in 4Q15, while the share of respondents who are afraid of being fired was at 44%. As a result, unemployment has almost caught up with inflation as the prime concern, cited by record 60% of respondents (vs. 62% of Ivanovs worried about inflation).
* 20% of Ivanovs got a raise or wage indexation of 5.6% at end 2015 or in 1Q16, suggesting a 1.4% average increase for the whole sample. If wages are increased by R1,000 per month, only 36% of this will be allocated toward food (compared with the 38% of income currently spent on food), 10% will be directed toward clothing and household goods (currently 15%) and 14% will be saved (compared with just 7% currently).
* Our big-ticket purchase index also appears to have hit a trough in 4Q15, rising from -34% to -31% last quarter, which squares well with the slightly more upbeat outlook on discretionary spending expressed by the Ivanovs. This will be further reinforced by the artificially low base from 1Q15, when sales of durables were relatively quiet following the buying frenzy in 4Q14.
* The proportion of Ivanovs with no savings grew from 36% in 4Q15 to 41% in 1Q16, while the savings ratio dropped from 8.3% in 4Q15 to 7.0% last quarter. We associate this mostly with a Q-o-Q income decline, whereas Ivanovs note the need to save more.
* The share of price-sensitive respondents increased (to 76%) after staying flat at 75% for four straight quarters. The proportion of Ivanovs who have been trading down remained flat Q-o-Q at 70%. Promo-hunting continues: the percentage of Ivanovs who try to save on food staples by using promotional offers more often and in larger volumes grew from 50% in 2Q153 to 60% in 1Q16.
The fifteenth tracker crept up to -22% in 1Q16 from -24% in 4Q15.
The main findings of the survey are shown below:
* Q-o-Q improvements were recorded across all individual index components. The Ivanovs' 12m personal wealth expectations improved 2 pp Q-o-Q, marking a bottom in 4Q15 and matching the year-ago level (-1%). Similarly, the 12m forward country wealth outlook picked up 3 pp Q-o-Q to 7%, a level last seen in 1Q15. This can probably be attributed to the consistent slowdown in inflation and easing exchange rate fears. Meanwhile, the percentage of Ivanovs who regard the Russian economy as shaky rose Q-o-Q to 86%, supporting our view that people do not expect a quick and easy improvement in the macro situation.
* The unemployment ratio rose to 12.0% from 11.0% in 4Q15, while the share of respondents who are afraid of being fired was at 44%. As a result, unemployment has almost caught up with inflation as the prime concern, cited by record 60% of respondents (vs. 62% of Ivanovs worried about inflation).
* 20% of Ivanovs got a raise or wage indexation of 5.6% at end 2015 or in 1Q16, suggesting a 1.4% average increase for the whole sample. If wages are increased by R1,000 per month, only 36% of this will be allocated toward food (compared with the 38% of income currently spent on food), 10% will be directed toward clothing and household goods (currently 15%) and 14% will be saved (compared with just 7% currently).
* Our big-ticket purchase index also appears to have hit a trough in 4Q15, rising from -34% to -31% last quarter, which squares well with the slightly more upbeat outlook on discretionary spending expressed by the Ivanovs. This will be further reinforced by the artificially low base from 1Q15, when sales of durables were relatively quiet following the buying frenzy in 4Q14.
* The proportion of Ivanovs with no savings grew from 36% in 4Q15 to 41% in 1Q16, while the savings ratio dropped from 8.3% in 4Q15 to 7.0% last quarter. We associate this mostly with a Q-o-Q income decline, whereas Ivanovs note the need to save more.
* The share of price-sensitive respondents increased (to 76%) after staying flat at 75% for four straight quarters. The proportion of Ivanovs who have been trading down remained flat Q-o-Q at 70%. Promo-hunting continues: the percentage of Ivanovs who try to save on food staples by using promotional offers more often and in larger volumes grew from 50% in 2Q153 to 60% in 1Q16.
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