05.04.2016, 01:24
Analysis of Household Deposit Market Development in 2015
OREANDA-NEWS. The State Corporation Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) has analysed the household deposit market development in 2015.
The amount of funds of individuals in banks increased by RUR 4,666.4 bln (in 2014 - by RUR 1,598.1 bln) and reached RUR 23,219.1 bln. In relative terms, the growth amounted to 25.2 % (in 2014 - 9.4 %).
Without the influence of the currency revaluation, the amount of deposits would have increased by 18.7 %. The interest capitalization percentage in 2015 is estimated at 7.9 percentage points. So, the inflow of new deposits into the banking system is estimated at 10.8 %.
Investments in uncovered bearer saving certificates were increasing rapidly in the beginning of the reporting period, and then the growth slowed down. During the year, the amount of funds placed in such certificates increased by RUR 111 bln (by 24.1 %) up to RUR 571.1 bln. As the result, the share of bearer certificates in the total volume of deposits remained unchanged and amounted to 2.5 %.
The amount of covered deposits in banks (including the funds of individual entrepreneurs) increased in 2015 by RUR 4,586.7 bln (in 2014 - by RUR 1,503.7 bln). In relative terms, it increased by 25.1 % up to RUR 22,889.9 bln (in 2014 - by 9 %).
The dynamics of daily increase of deposits demonstrates much higher saving activity in 2015 compared to the previous year. In January-November, the average daily growth of deposits amounted to RUR 8.8 bln, without currency revaluation - RUR 6.2 bln (in January-November 2014 - RUR 3.4 bln per day, without currency revaluation - minus RUR 0.5 bln).
According to the Agency forecast, the total amount of deposits will increase in 2016 by RUR 3.3-3.7 trillion (14-16 % in relative terms) up to RUR 26.5-26.9 trillion. This forecast takes into account the possible deceleration of households' income growth, uncertain currency movements as well as the gradually decreasing (compared with 2015) level of interest on deposits.
According to the monitoring of interest rates on deposits with 100 largest retail banks conducted by DIA, the majority of banks (91 out of 100) decreased the interest rates on deposits in 2015. 8 banks increased the interest rate; one bank has the interest rate unchanged. The main decrease of interest rates on deposits happened in H1.
As of 1 January 2016, the average level of interest rates (weighted by deposit amount) on one year rouble deposits over RUR 1 mln decreased by 3.2 percentage points: from 12.4 % to 9.2 % per year. The average (unweighted) interest rates on the same deposits decreased by 4.5 percentage points: from 14.9 % to 10.42 % per year.
According to DIA, slight decrease of interest rates on deposits might continue in the near future, although their level will generally remain quite stable. If the annual inflation decreases, the real profitability of deposits during the year might reach positive values again.
At year-end 2015, the share of foreign-currency deposits increased from 26.1 % to 29.4 %. The major increase was in Q3, by 3.4 percentage points.
Due to higher interest rates on short-term deposits in the reporting period, the share of fixed-term deposits with maturity of less than 1 year increased from 27.6 % to 40 %. At the same time the share of long-term deposits with maturity over 1 year decreased from 55.1 % to 43.5 %. The share of on-demand deposits changed slightly: from 17.3 % to 16.6 %. The major change in the deposit structure happened in the beginning of the year.
The amount of funds of individuals in banks increased by RUR 4,666.4 bln (in 2014 - by RUR 1,598.1 bln) and reached RUR 23,219.1 bln. In relative terms, the growth amounted to 25.2 % (in 2014 - 9.4 %).
Without the influence of the currency revaluation, the amount of deposits would have increased by 18.7 %. The interest capitalization percentage in 2015 is estimated at 7.9 percentage points. So, the inflow of new deposits into the banking system is estimated at 10.8 %.
Investments in uncovered bearer saving certificates were increasing rapidly in the beginning of the reporting period, and then the growth slowed down. During the year, the amount of funds placed in such certificates increased by RUR 111 bln (by 24.1 %) up to RUR 571.1 bln. As the result, the share of bearer certificates in the total volume of deposits remained unchanged and amounted to 2.5 %.
The amount of covered deposits in banks (including the funds of individual entrepreneurs) increased in 2015 by RUR 4,586.7 bln (in 2014 - by RUR 1,503.7 bln). In relative terms, it increased by 25.1 % up to RUR 22,889.9 bln (in 2014 - by 9 %).
The dynamics of daily increase of deposits demonstrates much higher saving activity in 2015 compared to the previous year. In January-November, the average daily growth of deposits amounted to RUR 8.8 bln, without currency revaluation - RUR 6.2 bln (in January-November 2014 - RUR 3.4 bln per day, without currency revaluation - minus RUR 0.5 bln).
According to the Agency forecast, the total amount of deposits will increase in 2016 by RUR 3.3-3.7 trillion (14-16 % in relative terms) up to RUR 26.5-26.9 trillion. This forecast takes into account the possible deceleration of households' income growth, uncertain currency movements as well as the gradually decreasing (compared with 2015) level of interest on deposits.
According to the monitoring of interest rates on deposits with 100 largest retail banks conducted by DIA, the majority of banks (91 out of 100) decreased the interest rates on deposits in 2015. 8 banks increased the interest rate; one bank has the interest rate unchanged. The main decrease of interest rates on deposits happened in H1.
As of 1 January 2016, the average level of interest rates (weighted by deposit amount) on one year rouble deposits over RUR 1 mln decreased by 3.2 percentage points: from 12.4 % to 9.2 % per year. The average (unweighted) interest rates on the same deposits decreased by 4.5 percentage points: from 14.9 % to 10.42 % per year.
According to DIA, slight decrease of interest rates on deposits might continue in the near future, although their level will generally remain quite stable. If the annual inflation decreases, the real profitability of deposits during the year might reach positive values again.
At year-end 2015, the share of foreign-currency deposits increased from 26.1 % to 29.4 %. The major increase was in Q3, by 3.4 percentage points.
Due to higher interest rates on short-term deposits in the reporting period, the share of fixed-term deposits with maturity of less than 1 year increased from 27.6 % to 40 %. At the same time the share of long-term deposits with maturity over 1 year decreased from 55.1 % to 43.5 %. The share of on-demand deposits changed slightly: from 17.3 % to 16.6 %. The major change in the deposit structure happened in the beginning of the year.
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