OREANDA-NEWS. A survey of investors, analysts and members of the business community at Fitch Ratings' recently held Indonesia Credit Briefing in Jakarta confirmed a marked improvement in confidence in the economy and market conditions in recent months. A wave of government announcements on reforms, signs that the implementation of its infrastructure investment agenda has started to contribute to GDP growth, and improvement in the current account over the past year likely contributed to the transition in sentiment, which has been illustrated by the stabilisation of the exchange rate.

Of the more than 100 attendees Fitch surveyed on 16 March, over 60% felt that the economic cycle had shifted from trough to recovery. When asked about positioning, over half felt that it was the right time to increase investments in Indonesia, versus just over 40% who responded they would stay neutral and only 3% who advocated a decrease. Confidence that capital spending and infrastructure investment would increase was also high among participants - a combined 85% responded that they were either very or somewhat optimistic that infrastructure spending would significantly accelerate in 2016-2017.

That said, questions remain regarding economic policy implementation over the medium term while significant external risks continue to weigh on confidence and the outlooks in key sectors. Inflation recently fell back within Bank Indonesia's target range (4%, +/-1pp for 2016), but external vulnerabilities remain major concerns. Over half of those surveyed said that they remained "very concerned" about rupiah volatility and identified external vulnerabilities as the biggest risk facing the Indonesian credit market. A China slowdown was seen as the greatest economic risk in 2016, with more respondents voting for this as the principal concern over domestic policy risks and US interest rate rises.

Fitch forecasts Indonesian real GDP growth to accelerate slightly to 5.1% in 2016 and 5.4% in 2017 from 4.8% in 2015, the slowest pace since 2009. Early signs of success in structural reforms and acceleration of infrastructure investment indicate a new economic growth cycle, which would be positive for credit. But a more rapid acceleration is not part of the core forecast scenario, as the road to reform implementation remains long and fiscal space to boost public capital expenditure is limited due to very low government revenue. Moreover, weak domestic corporate balance sheets do not suggest a pick-up in private investment in the near term and the external environment remains a major uncertainty.

Fitch maintains negative sector outlooks on Indonesian banks. Declining profitability, rising credit costs and growing NPLs contribute to the negative banking sector outlook. This was reflected in the participant survey with almost 60% saying that they were "very concerned" about asset quality. Fitch expects the trends in profitability and NPLs for Indonesian banks to continue this year, though the pace of deterioration is likely to slow.

However, profitability at Indonesian banks remains significantly higher than that of other banking sectors in the region due to Indonesian banks' stronger margins, which provide substantial buffer to cope with higher credit costs. Major banks maintain high core capital ratios and should be resilient in the event of continued challenging operating conditions.