OREANDA-NEWS. March 30, 2016. The recent rebound in European steel prices could represent the beginnings of a recovery for companies who suffered huge losses as a result of the dramatic price collapse in 2015. Initial reluctance from buyers to pay rising prices has turned to acceptance and, with imports now offered at the same levels as domestic material, it seems the recovery may not be as temporary as was first thought.

Across the continent purchasing managers will be asking themselves “is this the right time to buy?” Increasingly the answer would appear to be “yes.”

Hot rolled coil imported into Europe now costs the same as material from a local mill. This has not been the case since December 2014, according to Platts Market Data. Platts daily ex-works Ruhr assessment was at €350/mt Monday March 24, with CIF Antwerp imports assessed at parity – prices have remained static at such levels since.

The disappearance of the spread between import and domestic material has effectively left the European market at the mercy of domestic producers. Buyers usually want at least a Eur20-30/mt discount to make the extended delivery times — and the unknown future that comes with this — worth the risk.

“If China comes back in the next two-three weeks then we know lead times have been 4-5 months, that would mean you would already be talking September/October,” a mill source said. A UK-based trader agreed: “The key thing is the next ten days are critical, if the prices are still holding up in early April then people will shake their heads and say wow this is where we are.”

Without the threat of imports the picture is much brighter in Europe, where demand is not as bad as elsewhere. Whereas Asia, CIS, US and South American apparent steel demand decreased last year, European Union demand rose by 3.4% in 2015. However, this benefit was not felt by domestic producers as the EU28 imported a whopping 7.5 million mt of wide strip, up almost 54% on the 4.9 million mt figure in 2014.

The China story has had lots of airtime of late, with a potential 50% cut in crude production for mills in Tangshan – the country’s steelmaking hub – amid a horticultural exhibition filtering into more bullish sentiment. Stockpiles in the country are also significantly lower compared to this time last year, and traders are taking long positions in anticipation of further rises, both domestically and in export markets.

But outside of China other mills have also taken meaningful steps to address the ‘new-normal’. Global capacity utilization dropped 5.7 percentage points last month, compared to February 2015, according to the 66 countries reporting to the World Steel Association. In Germany crude output fell 4.3%, while Italian production dipped just over 2%. Turkish crude production rose 4% compared to February last year, but this could partly be explained by mills melting more scrap than buying billet for re-rolling.

CIS countries are another key player in the global export market, and there offers have been rising rampantly of late. Russian mills have been benefiting from strong Turkish HRC demand, with prices around \\$390-400/mt CIF for commodity grade coil recently. Slab supply is also tightening in the CIS and elsewhere, with mills often seen in the merchant market preferring to cash in on rising coil prices. “A lot more [slab] production is moving to laying down HRC for CR and galv,” a procurement source with an international trading house told Platts — he said his slab replacement cost had risen from \\$265/mt FOB Brazilian port a week ago to \\$290/mt FOB.

What does all this mean for the European producers? At present they have a captive market and clearly could well press for at least one more increase. Perhaps more significantly, it could give them license to push for higher prices in three to five months, if there is a sustained lack of import bookings.