OREANDA-NEWS. March 28, 2016. Fitch Ratings has today affirmed the North American Development Bank's (NADB) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'AA'/'F1+'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. A full list of NADB's ratings follows at the end of this press release.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect the following key rating factors:

--The bank has strong capitalization, albeit gradually declining due to NADB's continuing to ramp-up in lending. As of Dec-2015, NADB's equity accounted for roughly 32.1% of assets compared with 36% on average shown in the last three years. Leverage is growing, but is still relatively low compared with its closest peers, with debt representing 209.4% of equity at the end of 2015. Fitch expects that the bank's capitalization will continue to decline due to the accelerated growth, although capital ratios will continue to be commensurate with 'AA' rating.

--In order to sustain its growth and prevent the deterioration of the capital metrics, NADB asked the US and Mexican governments for a general capital increase. Specifically, USD450 million (with unspecified disbursements from each country for the next seven years; originally projected USD45 million from each country for the next five years) increase in paid-in capital, along with authorization of USD2.55 billion in additional callable capital from the two governments. However, the capital increase is delayed; as of today, only USD10 million have been authorized for 2016 by the US, with an equal payment expected from Mexico, instead of USD45 million projected from each country, a situation that contrasts with Fitch's expectations. Fitch believes that the USD450 million target will be difficult to achieve, and further delay in the capital increase could drive to a more rapid than expected deterioration in NADB's capitalization and leverage metrics, assuming the strong growth in lending is maintained.

--Despite the bank's private-sector lending orientation (70% of exposure as of end-2015), which does not benefit from preferred-creditor status, impaired loans have remained controlled. As of Dec-2015, NADB's non-performing loans were zero. This reflects the bank's good underwriting standards and the support of the Mexican state, which provides a form of guarantee from local authorities for its loan portfolio in the Mexican side (51% of total loan portfolio).

--The average rating of the loan portfolio has deteriorated from 'BBB-' in 2014 to 'BB+' in 2015, reflecting the marked increase in project lending in Mexico. As a large share of loans will reach a mature state in the next two years, difficulties in loan servicing may appear, placing modest pressure on asset quality.

--Loan concentration has gradually been reducing due to the rapid growth of the loan portfolio. Concentration ratios are similar to those shown by peers' lending to private-sector borrowers. The bank's five largest exposures accounted for 71.5% of the bank's equity compared to 82% of the average of 2014 - 2012.

--The bank continues with excellent liquidity at end-2015. Liquid assets accounted for 28.4% of total assets at year-end and the bank had no short-term debt. NADB's ratio of treasury assets to short-term debt is expected to remain excellent as no bond is expected to mature before 2018.

--Credit risk on treasury assets is managed conservatively. Interest rate and foreign exchange risks are kept to a minimum, in line with most other Multilateral Development Banks. The bank's risk management is being progressively improved.

--Support is not a major factor in the bank's ratings. However, Fitch believes that the support of its two member countries is strong; ratings of the U.S. ('AAA'/Stable Outlook) and Mexico ('BBB+'/Stable Outlook) have remained unchanged since last review. However, the average rating of key shareholders remains lower than some multilateral development bank peers, which would constrain a support-driven rating. Support takes the form of callable capital equally subscribed by the two shareholders, accounting for 85% of subscribed capital.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

NADB's ratings are driven by intrinsic factors, the Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that NADB's credit profile will remain commensurate with its 'AA' rating. The factors that could, individually or collectively, affect NADB's ratings are:
--A stronger than currently expected deterioration of capitalization, related to more aggressive growth and/or to rising losses on the loan portfolio, would be detrimental for the rating.

--Substantial delays in the disbursement of paid-in capital would have negative rating implication, should NADB maintain its aggressive lending growth.

--The building up of a healthy track record, associated with moderate growth in the loan portfolio, limited losses and lower concentration levels would be favorable for the ratings.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

The ratings and Outlook are sensitive to a number of assumptions, particularly:

--Fitch assumes that NADB's business model will remain unchanged and in particular will include a significant element of lending to private-sector borrowers.

--Fitch assumes that NADB will maintain its conservative risk management and governance policies.]

Fitch affirms NADB's ratings as follows:
--Long-term IDR at 'AA'; Outlook Stable;
--Short-term IDR at 'F1+';
--Senior unsecured long-term notes at 'AA'.