OREANDA-NEWS. China's coal sector is likely to remain under pressure in the short to medium term as structural weaknesses in demand and overcapacity persist, says Fitch Ratings in a new report. Fitch expects the overall financial health of the sector to weaken further over the next two years.

Fitch estimates that the Chinese coal sector will have up to 3.3 billion tonnes of excess capacity within the next two years, versus declining annual consumption of less than 4 billion tonnes per annum for the past two years. This calculation is based on 1.4 billion tonnes of existing idle capacity at end-2014, plus up to another 1.9 billion tonnes of capacity under construction - based on historical fixed-asset investments (FAI) in the sector.

The central government is taking steps to reduce capacity in the industry. This includes the State Council's capacity phase-out target of 500-1,000m tonnes in the next three to five years and the establishment of the Industrial Company Structural Adjustment Special Fund, which aims to address layoff problems in oversupplied industries. However, the phase-out target is less than one-third of the likely excess capacity in the system. In addition, we think that implementation of the phase-out target is likely to be slow. This is because local governments - which control state-owned coal producers accounting for around half of the country's coal production - need to balance phase-out measures against issues of social stability.

At the same time, demand for coal in China has been reduced by economic rebalancing towards more sustainable and less energy-intensive growth, and curbs on polluting industries. Coal consumption fell in 2014 for the first time in this century. Overcapacity in the seaborne market puts further pressure on Chinese coal prices.

Fitch expects an increasing number of coal producers to fall into financial distress (See "China Coal Sector's Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016" dated 18 February 2016). The sector's financial leverage, which is already high due to aggressive debt-funded capital expenditure in prior years, could rise further as weak profitability and high interest expenses erode coal producers' FCF generation. Miners enjoying economies of scale, a higher degree of vertical integration, and good access to high-quality and low-cost mines are likely to survive and benefit from industry consolidation, while those lacking cost advantages and funding access will be forced to exit.

The full report, titled "China Coal Blue Book - Prolonged Downturn amid Persistent Overcapacity", is the latest in a series of Fitch China Research Initiative publications dedicated to providing comprehensive, in-depth research and insight into the key credit aspects of corporate sectors in China. The full report is available on www.fitchratings.com.