OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has upgraded JetBlue Airways Corp.'s (JBLU) ratings to
'BB-' from 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also upgraded JBLU's unsecured rating to 'BB-/RR4' from 'B+/RR4' and affirmed JetBlue's senior secured credit facility at 'BB+/RR1'. A full list of ratings follows at the end of this release.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The upgrade is supported by JetBlue's improving credit metrics, consistent profitability, unit revenue outperformance compared to its peers in 2015, and its solid financial flexibility. Debt reduction in 2015 outpaced Fitch's prior expectations, as JBLU utilized a portion of its savings from lower jet fuel costs to improve its balance sheet. The ratings upgrade is also supported by JBLU's continuing commitment towards paying down debt, the near-term cash flow benefits that Fitch expects as the results of significantly lower fuel prices, and improving health of the North American airline sector as a whole.

Primary ratings concerns include the cyclicality and high degree of operating leverage that is typical for the airline industry. JetBlue will continue to pursue a growth strategy that is more aggressive than its peer group, though that risk is offset by the company's successful track record. Longer term concerns also include the strengthened competitive position coming from the major network carriers as their financial performance has improved, and by the rapid growth of ultra-low cost competitors

STRONG RECENT OPERATING PERFORMANCE

JBLU's EBIT margins expanded by more than 10 percentage points in 2015, outpacing the margin improvement generated by its competitors. The great majority of the margin improvement was a direct result of lower jet fuel prices. Fitch expects operating margins to expand by another 1% - 4% percentage points in 2016, primarily driven by the sharp recent drop in fuel prices and by expectations for relatively flat non-fuel unit costs.

Positive factors may be partially offset by the possibility for some softness in unit revenues. Fitch's current forecast for 2016 incorporates a jet fuel price of $1.40/gallon, representing a roughly 30% decrease from JetBlue's average price paid in 2015 of $1.93. Over the longer term, Fitch does expect fuel prices to rise off of recent lows, potentially bringing margins down from the record levels seen over the past year. Should fuel prices remain within the forecasted range, JBLU could spend nearly $300 million less on jet fuel than it did in 2015 and nearly $860 million less than it did in 2014, though the recent volatility in crude prices makes potential savings difficult to estimate. The cash saved on fuel will give JBLU significant ability to finance its stated goals of paying down debt and continuing to purchase aircraft with cash.

Fitch expects non-fuel unit costs to be fairly stable for the coming year. JetBlue is scheduled to take delivery of 10 A321-200s in 2016 and is scheduled to begin densifying its existing A321 fleet, adding 10 seats to each aircraft. A320 densification will begin in 2017, adding 12 seats to each of those aircraft. The larger gauge of the A321 and the additional seat density on JBLU's existing planes should help to control unit costs. JBLU is also focusing on its maintenance programs and reliability in an effort to keep unit costs under control. Those efforts allowed the company to keep unit costs under control in 2015 as CASM ex fuel and profit sharing increased by 0.5%.

Benefits of lower costs in 2016 may be partially offset by some softness in unit revenues. Sharply lower fuel prices are expected to continue to exert some negative pressure on yields across the industry in the near-term. Meanwhile, ultra-low cost carriers like Spirit and Frontier continue to grow at a rapid clip, increasing competition, and causing mainline carriers to compete more vigorously with the introduction of low fare products of their own. Revenue pressures at JBLU will be partially offset by the growth of its 'fare options' product. Fare options were introduced in the second quarter of 2015 and include charges for things like checked bags and the option for same day reservation changes. JetBlue expects fare options to reach a run-rate of $200 million in incremental revenue in 2016. Fitch views that goal as achievable given the early success of the program.

IMPROVING BALANCE SHEET HEALTH

Fitch calculates JetBlue's total adjusted debt/EBITDAR at 2.5x, down from 4.5x at year end 2014. Fitch expects JBLU's leverage to continue declining at least through 2016 driven both by higher expected EBITDAR (lower fuel prices, revenue enhancing initiatives) and through significant incremental debt reduction. JBLU's leverage is now in line with or below several peers that Fitch rates in the 'BB' category. Leverage improvement in 2015 was largely driven by lower fuel costs. Additionally, the company used its strong cash flow to decrease debt by $328 for the year, including $132 million in prepayments. The debt prepayment caused 4 aircraft to become unencumbered. JetBlue's unencumbered asset base as of year-end 2015 stands at 61 aircraft and 33 spare engines. This number is expected to increase to 76 as JBLU makes its final payment on EETC debt issued in 2004. Fitch considers high quality unencumbered aircraft to be a good additional source of financial flexibility.

SOLID FINANCIAL FLEXIBILTY

Fitch expects JBLU to produce FCF approaching or potentially exceeding $600 million in 2016, marking a sharp contrast with prior years when FCF was minimal or slightly negative. 2016 will likely mark the first year that JBLU will pay a meaningful amount of cash taxes, having largely exhausted its existing NOLs in 2015. Cash taxes may represent headwind to FCF in the $300+ million range. Fitch expects the impact of cash taxes to be offset by savings on jet fuel. JBLU produced $657 million of FCF for full year 2015, which is up from -$21 million in 2014 and better than Fitch's original expectation of roughly $400 of FCF. JetBlue has now produced positive free cash flow in six out of the last seven years Fitch expects the company to continue generating significantly positive FCF for the foreseeable future.

Financial flexibility is also supported by JBLU's growing base of unencumbered assets. Fitch considers JBLU's unencumbered Airbus A320s to be high quality assets which should support capital market access in the case of a liquidity crunch. Fitch expects JBLU to further expand its base of unencumbered assets over the coming years as it opportunistically pays for some aircraft with cash and pays down existing aircraft secured debt.

LIQUIDITY

Liquidity is supportive of the ratings. As of Dec. 31, 2015 JetBlue had a cash and equivalents balance of $318 million, short term investment securities of $558 million and an undrawn revolver balance of $400 million. Total liquidity including the undrawn revolver is equivalent to 20% of LTM revenue, which Fitch considers to be more than adquate to address near-term needs. Upcoming debt maturities are manageable, including the maturity of two classes of floating rate notes due in 2016 . Fitch expects JBLU to generate sufficient operating cash in the near term to cover its capital expenditures and debt maturities without the need for further borrowing.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
--mid-to-high single digit capacity growth throughout the forecast period;
--Continued stable/slow growth in demand for U.S. domestic travel;
--low to mid-single digit RASM decline in 2016 followed by roughly flat RASM thereafter;
--Jet Fuel prices equating to roughly $40/barrel on average for 2016, increasing to ~$70/barrel by the end of the forecast period

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a positive rating action include:

--Continued positive FCF generation with FCF margin sustained in the mid-single digits;
--Further execution on JBLU's debt reduction plans and debt/EBITDAR maintained near or below current levels;
--FFO fixed charge coverage remaining above 3.5x.

Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include:

--Sustained negative free cash flow;
--A change in management strategy to direct cash to dividends/share repurchases at the expense of a healthy balance sheet;
--Adjusted leverage increasing to above 4x;
--FFO fixed charge coverage dropping to below 2.5x.

FULL LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

JetBlue Airways, Corp.
--Long-term IDR upgraded to 'BB-' from 'B+';
--Senior secured credit facility affirmed at 'BB+/RR1'
--Senior unsecured debt upgraded to 'BB-/RR4' from 'B+/RR4'.