OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Metropolitan City of Milan's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB+' and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F2'. The Outlooks are Stable. Milan's outstanding senior unsecured debt ratings have also been affirmed at 'BBB+'.

The affirmation reflects Milan's wealthy economy, coupled with a healthy operating performance due to continued spending control, and an expected decrease in direct debt. The ratings also factor in the continued pressure from the national fiscal adjustment, which may add pressure to the operating revenue structure.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Fiscal Performance
Adjusted for the effects induced by the mandatory introduction of new accounting rules, the decline in operating performance in 2015 to 5% was mostly due to higher contributions to consolidate the national fiscal budget and, to a lesser extent, revenue curtailment. Fitch expects operating performance to rise back to 9.5%, on the back of progressive strengthening of the automobile industry, which accounts for 60% of operating revenues, as well as cost efficiencies from headcount reduction following the reallocation of some responsibilities to the region and the municipality, which will be finalised by year end.

Institutional Framework
Following the adoption of its new status in early 2015, the mix of revenue and spending responsibilities has only marginally changed so far, as new responsibilities relate to additional inter-municipal services. An additional boost to the metropolitan city's revenue structure could materialise if new taxes are introduced (such as a levy on airport transits), although this is still under discussion. The recent extension through 2018 of the temporary transfer of the ownership in motorway operator Asam Spa (BBB/Stable) to Finlombarda (a subsidiary of the region of Lombardy) eases financial pressure on Milan accounts, as it would transfer back at cost.

Debt and Liquidity
We expect the debt policy to remain conservative, with stock heading below EUR600m by 2017 from EUR630m at end-2015 (average life of 14.5 years at 1.45% interest rate). Cash calls from capex are typically for extraordinary maintenance of roads and school facilities. These have been reduced from an average of EUR110m in 2011-2013 and should average EUR30m in the medium term. They will continue to be largely self-funded through surplus and also rationalisation of the real estate portfolio of the metropolitan city facilitated by central government agencies.

In addition to the possible use of the treasury lines and the sale of the EUR40m redeemable insurance, Fitch expects Milan to maintain a good cash position as a buffer in case of unexpected liquidity shortfall. Liquidity was EUR180m at 2015 (net of a term deposit with the central bank for about EUR90m), covering 2015 debt service requirements by almost 4x.

Economy
Milan's sound economic fundamentals have proven resilient during a prolonged down cycle (GDP grew by 1.0% in 2015 and is expected to outpace performance at national level), allowing the local economy to maintain its wealthy indicators (GDP per capita around 50% above the EU29 average). Accordingly, we expect the unemployment rate to further improve from 8% in 2015 (12% nationally) in tandem with the employment rate further strengthening from the 67.5% (55.5% nationally).

RATING SENSITIVITIES
An upgrade would be contingent on a similar action on the sovereign ratings, and provided that the metropolitan city continues to perform in line with Fitch's expectations.

Failure to bolster the operating balance towards 10% under the new metropolitan city framework to largely cover the annual debt-servicing requirements, and/or unexpected growth of debt towards 200% of revenue could prompt a downgrade, as well as a sovereign downgrade.