OREANDA-NEWS. The presidential field in South America?s sole LNG exporter Peru has abruptly coalesced around two right-of-center candidates ahead of 10 April elections, but the climate remains turbulent.

Former congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of jailed former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), has 32pc of the vote, according to the most recent poll by Ipsos Peru. She has nearly double the support of her closest competitor, former finance minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, known popularly as PPK, who has 14pc.

The race has been shaken up by fraud allegations that sidelined two candidates. Economist Julio Guzm?n had been running in second place when he was disqualified on 13 March because of an administrative error by his party.

Fujimori's path to victory could be complicated as the 19pc of voters who backed Guzm?n and the other disqualified candidate, Cesar Acu?a, migrate to other parties. She is also facing a swelling "anti-Fujimori" campaign focused on the corruption and human rights violations that sent her father to prison for 25 years in 2009.

Peruvian law requires the top two contenders to face each other in a 5 June runoff if no candidate receives at least 50pc of the vote. Fujimori's chances in this scenario are less promising. She would lose to PPK in a hypothetical runoff, according to the Ipsos poll, and would barely defeat two other candidates who are tied for third place.

Uncertainty created by electoral agencies – it took six different decisions to disqualify Guzm?n – and personal attacks have kept candidates from addressing critical issues, including plans for the strategic mining, oil and natural gas sectors.

Political scientist Luis Benavente of the polling and analysis firm Vox Populi says the recent changes have reshaped the election. "A large number of voters will decide on a candidate in the coming weeks. It is volatile race," he said.

Peru will cement its role as the world's second copper producer this year, adding approximately 800,000 t/yr of production. Output will increase to 2.5m t/yr by the end of 2017, nearly double the 2015 total. Peru is also second in the world in silver production, third in tin and zinc, fourth in lead and seventh in gold, according to the US Geological Survey. Annual mining investment averaged more than $8.5bn for the past four years.

Gas has received the lion's share of investment, with the development of the 12.7 trillion ft3 Camisea fields, an 800km pipeline, fractionating plant and Peru LNG facility launched in 2010. A second $4bn pipeline to bring gas to a new industrial zone around Ilo on the coast is currently under construction.

PPK's government plan, at 280 pages, is the most extensive and detailed platform of the leading candidates. In the energy field, he proposes a review of the general oil and gas law, including a new methodology for assigning rights over the different components of gas and gas liquids.

Fujimori's more ambiguous energy plan includes four points, focusing on gas. Fujimori and PPK coincide on supporting a radical transformation of state-run PetroPeru, including the implementation of a long-delayed upgrade of the 65,000 b/d Talara refinery.

The candidates in third place with 9pc support apiece, centrist Alfredo Barnechea and leftist Veronika Mendoza, have made energy a key plank and could rekindle debate. Both have pledged to renegotiate existing upstream contracts, particularly those involving Camisea and gas earmarked for export by Peru LNG. Under an agreement with Mexican state-run utility CFE, approximately 65pc of Peru's LNG goes to Mexico?s Manzanillo terminal.

Proposals for mining focus principally on environmental and social issues, with candidates pledging to work with companies and communities to improve relations. Two huge copper projects, the $5bn Minas Conga spearheaded by Denver-based Newmont Mining, and $1.5bn T?a Mar?a by Mexico's Southern Copper, are stalled over community opposition regarding water. Resolving such social friction is critical to ensuring $27bn the mining ministry estimates could be invested in mining in the coming five years.

Fujimori offered to create a legal framework for companies to include communities as shareholders. The concept is aimed at ensuring economic benefits to communities as a way to diffuse tensions. PPK's plan also puts the burden on companies, but calls for the state to review environmental regulations and other legal norms to create a new climate for community-company relations.