Fitch Upgrades RevoCar 2014 and RevoCar 2015 to 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has upgraded RevoCar 2014 UG (haftungsbeschraenkt) and RevoCar 2015 UG (haftungsbeschraenkt), as follows:
RevoCar 2014
EUR91.6m class A notes (ISIN XS1073062934): upgraded to 'AAAsf' from 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
RevoCar 2015
EUR191.8m class A notes (ISIN XS1209511143): upgraded to 'AAAsf' from 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
The transactions are securitisations of auto loans originated by Bank11 fuer Privatkunden und Handel GmbH. RevoCar 2014 and RevoCar 2015 are special-purpose companies incorporated with limited liability under German law.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Enhanced Data Availability
Fitch initially applied a maximum rating of 'Asf' for both transactions, due to limited data history available since Bank11 began operations only in 2011. For the transactions' review, we received updated performance data for the originator's loan book. In addition, about two years of transaction performance data are available. Fitch considers the available data adequate to increase the maximum rating.
Performance Better Than Expectations
The upgrades also reflect the transactions' stable performance, which is better than Fitch's initial expectations. As per the latest investor reports, cumulative default rates since closing (May 2014 for RevoCar 2014 and March 2015 for RevoCar 2015) are 0.43% and 0.22%, respectively. Accounts delinquent for more than 30 days make up about 1.1% of the current portfolio balance for RevoCar 2014 and 1.2% for RevoCar 2015. Fitch's outlook for the German economy is stable. Therefore, we do not expect any significant performance deterioration, which is reflected in the Stable Outlooks on the notes.
Significant Credit Enhancement (CE)
The transactions started amortising sequentially at closing, which resulted in an increase in CE for RevoCar 2014's class A notes to the current 40.2% from 17.4% and for RevoCar 2015's class A notes to 22.5% from 16.0% at closing. CE is almost completely made up of overcollateralisation from subordination of the class B notes. In addition, we consider the floor of the amortising reserve funds to provide further protection for the rated notes. The transactions also benefit from sizeable excess spread that has been sufficient to cover realised defaults to date in both deals.
Contingent Risks Covered
The transactions' structures include commingling reserves, amortising liquidity reserves, and a contracted back-up servicer. We deem these structural features adequate to address commingling and payment interruption risks. Further seller-related risks include deposit set-off risk, which is covered by a dynamic reserve, as well as set-off risks from securitised insurance premiums and handling fees. Fitch considers the latter set-off risks to be adequately covered by the available CE.
The current pool compositions of are comparable with those at closing. Loan contracts backed by new cars represent about 60.1% of RevoCar 2014's portfolio and 65.6% of RevoCar 2015's, while the remaining loans are backed by used vehicles. The share of balloon contracts has remained fairly stable at 37.5% and 40.2%, respectively. Both transaction portfolios comprise almost exclusively private borrowers.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The lifetime default base case was reduced for both transactions from 4.5% to 2.5% based on the better than expected performance of the transactions. The lifetime recovery expectation remained unchanged at 40%. The lifetime loss rate was revised for each transaction from 2.7% to 1.5%, as derived from the revised default base case and unchanged recovery base case.
Expected impact upon the note ratings of increased defaults and decreased recoveries:
RevoCar 2014
Current Rating class A: 'AAAsf'
Increase base case defaults by 25%; decrease recovery base case by 25%: 'AAAsf'
RevoCar 2015
Current Rating class A: 'AAAsf'
Increase base case defaults by 25%; decrease recovery base case by 25%: 'AAAsf'
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information it has received about the performance of the asset pools and the transactions. There were no findings that were material to this analysis. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing monitoring.
Prior to the transactions' closing, Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information, which indicated no adverse findings material to the rating analysis.
Prior to the transactions' closing, Fitch conducted a review of a small targeted sample of the originator's origination files and found the information contained in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the originator's policies and practices and the other information provided to the agency about the asset portfolio.
Overall, Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
The information below was used in the analysis.
- Transaction reporting provided by Bank11 (servicer) and BNP Paribas Securities Services (cash administrator/paying agent) up to 31 January 2016.
- Monthly, static default vintages for the overall loans book provided by Bank11 for January 2013 to December 2015, covering defaults by defaulted amount and by number of defaulted loan contracts. In addition, Fitch used the vintage data for 2011 and 2012 provided for the transactions' initial analyses.
- Monthly, static recovery vintages for the overall loans book provided by Bank11 for January 2013-December 2015.
- Monthly, dynamic delinquency data for the overall loans book provided by Bank11 for January 2013-December 2015.
In addition, Fitch compared the transaction performance data with Fitch-rated peer transactions in the German market, and we used Bank11's loans book data provided for the initial transaction analyses.
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