OREANDA-NEWS. Higher-than-normal temperatures in the Southern Plains and portions of the Northern Plains has raised concerns that the US winter wheat crop could break dormancy and become vulnerable to a late-season freeze.

The warmer weather allows farmers earlier access to their fields and permits spring nitrogen fertilizer treatments, which has sparked renewed demand in the US. But early maturing of winter wheat makes the plant susceptible to a late-season frost, which could inflict injury to the plant and potentially lead to winter kill.

Farmers are worried about the possibility of a late freeze with the average date for a late-season freeze in winter wheat areas of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas occurring sometime between 15 March and 30 April, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Long-term NOAA forecasts indicate a high probability of an April freeze north of the Red river. February temperatures in the Southern Plains region have averaged a high of 68°F and a low of 45°F so far this year, 12°F-15°F higher than normal average temperatures, according to the National Weather Service.

Warm weather conditions have persuaded farmers in winter wheat growing states to start their spring nitrogen applications a couple of weeks early, just like they did in 2012 and 2013, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The winter wheat crop experienced a late spring freeze in 2013, which reduced the harvested-to-planted ratio to 69pc, down 13pc from 2012, and contributing to a decreased yield at 36.6 bushels/acre, according to USDA.

If a late-season freeze is not realized in 2016, the crop could be similar to the 2012 bumper crop that finished with a 40.7 bushels/acre yield, 2.1 bushels/acre ahead of the then-five-year average. The USDA's early yield estimates for 2016 is at 37.9 bushels/acre, 2.0 bushels/acre higher than last year.

Any impediment experienced by the winter wheat crop could add price support to wheat prices that have been pressured by high global supply. On the flip side, if the 2016 winter wheat crop meets or exceeds expectations the market likely will continue to face downward price pressure.