OREANDA-NEWS. February 26, 2016. Fitch Ratings has assigned a rating of 'AA' on the following certificates of participation (COPs) to be issued by the Orange County School Board Leasing Corporation:

--\\$37,200,000 COPs, series 2016B;
--\\$182,320,000 COPs, series 2016C.

The bonds are expected to price via negotiation on or about March 1. The COPs, series 2016B and 2016C, are being issued to refund, on an advanced basis, a portion of the outstanding COPs, series 2008D and 2009A, respectively. Preliminary combined net present value savings of \\$21.2 million or 9.4% of refunded par are estimated.

Fitch also affirms the 'AA' rating on \\$1.2 billion of outstanding (pre refunding) COPs and the 'AA+' implied unlimited tax general obligation (ULTGO) rating on the Orange County School District.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY

The COPs are payable by lease payments equal to debt service on the COPs to be made by the Orange County School Board, subject to annual appropriation, to the Orange County School Board Leasing Corporation under a master lease purchase agreement. In the event of non-appropriation the trustee may force the school board to surrender possession of all leased facilities under the master lease for disposition by sale or re-letting of its interest in such facilities.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

STRONG FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT: Conservative budgeting practices and policies have contributed to historically sound operations, strong unrestricted reserves and exceptional government-wide liquidity.

VOTER APPROVED SALES TAX: At the close of fiscal 2015, the district had accumulated a cash balance of more than \\$1.02 billion from the receipts of a voter approved sales tax and impact fees that afford it the flexibility to make capital investments on a pay-go basis. Key debt metrics are low as a result (2.2% of market value and \\$2,262 per capita) and no additional debt is anticipated at this time despite a significant capital plan designed to keep pace with a rapidly expanding student population.

RETIREE BENEFITS AFFORDABLE: Carrying charges for debt, pension, and retiree health benefits consume less than 10% of governmental spending, enhancing overall budget flexibility. Pension benefits are offered through a state plan that is adequately funded and the district's other post-employment benefit (OPEB) liability was recently reduced to a very manageable sum following certain plan changes.

GROWING ECONOMY: The growing health and education sector, underpinned by high-wage medical research and biotechnology, has broadened an economy that was traditionally based in tourism. The central Florida region is currently among the fastest growing metro areas in the U.S. and the rate of district enrollment growth has been strong.

COPS SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION: The COPs rating is linked to the district's general credit quality. The COPs rating is one notch from the implied ULTGO rating reflecting risk to the annual appropriation of lease payments from which debt service is paid and the essentiality of the leased assets within the master lease program.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

RESERVE STRENGTH: The district's high reserves are a principal consideration in the 'AA+' implied ULTGO rating, as they establish a sound level of financial flexibility and independence from state school funding changes. Diminishment of reserves could therefore pressure the rating.

OPERATING STABILITY: The district's operating performance is sensitive to negative shifts in enrollment or in the state funding formula for education, neither of which is anticipated in the foreseeable future.

CREDIT PROFILE

The Orange County School District's geographic boundaries are coterminous with central Florida's Orange County. The district operates 186 schools with a pre-K through 12 enrollment of 187,338 in fiscal 2016.

HISTORICALLY STRONG OPERATING AND FINANCIAL PROFILE

The district has achieved surplus general fund operating results consistently over the prior decade, steadily increasing its already healthy reserve position. At the conclusion of fiscal 2015 the general fund unrestricted fund balance totaled \\$329.9 million or a high 21.9% of spending. The district maintains a 3% financial contingency reserve policy, consistent with state norms. The general fund reserve position remained strong entering fiscal 2016 despite the incurrence of a large operating deficit (after transfers) in fiscal 2015 totaling \\$40.8 million or 2.7% of spending. The deficit was largely driven by the payment of non-recurring employee bonuses and the upfront payment of the two-year salary increase negotiated for fiscal 2015-2016. The adopted fiscal 2016 budget includes \\$62.2 million in capital investment and other non-recurring appropriations. The budget forecasted the use of \\$41.2 million in reserves but district officials now expect the fund balance will remain relatively stable at year end as certain technology and software projects have been cancelled or delayed.

The district will begin the process of formulating its fiscal 2017 budget in the coming months. The state per pupil funding formula is expected to increase roughly 2% on the year supported by continued improvement in the state's revenue performance, and district officials anticipate enrollment to expand by 4,000-5,000 students in the near term. No material challenges have been identified by officials from a funding perspective. The district's economy and tax base continue to perform well, supporting growth of discretionary operating and capital property tax dollars. The fixed-cost component of the budget is affordable with debt service, pension payments, and pay-go contributions for OPEB consuming less than 10% of governmental spending. The legislature is expected to consider a bill that would divert capital outlay revenue to charters but the impact is not expected to be material to the rating.

VOTER SUPPORT FOR CAPITAL AND OPERATING INITIATIVES

Fitch views voter support for district operating and capital initiatives as a positive credit consideration. In November 2014, voters re-authorized an additional one-mill for operations through fiscal 2019, estimated to generate approximately \\$108 million annually based on a 96% collection rate in the current fiscal year. Overall tax rates for fiscal 2016 remain moderate at 7.218 mills (excluding the voted millage) and comfortably within the statutory 10-mill cap. In August 2014, district voters approved a ten-year extension of a half-cent capital outlay sales tax through Dec. 31, 2025. The sales tax, which was originally authorized in 2002, generated \\$209.2 million in revenue for the district in fiscal 2015 and \\$191.8 million in fiscal 2014. The sales tax and receipts from a school impact fee (\\$56.5 million in fiscal 2015) are deposited into the district's capital project fund which reported \\$1.02 billion in cash and investments in fiscal 2015. The availability of these revenues has helped the district manage the growth of its student base and keep up with necessary improvements, expansions and maintenance without taking on a burdensome level of debt. Sales tax revenues are also available to service COP debt, if necessary.

ADEQUATE CAPITAL OUTLAY RESOURCES TO PAY COPS

The district's annual debt service budget is primarily driven by its \\$1.2 billion in outstanding COPs. While any legally available revenue can be used for COP debt service, the district has historically made payments from the 1.5 mill capital outlay tax. With the district's taxable assessed value (TAV) for fiscal 2016 \\$112.4 billion, a 0.93 mill rate generates sufficient revenues, assuming a 96% tax collection rate, to cover maximum annual COP debt service of \\$99.9 million (fiscal year 2023). Fitch believes there is strong incentive to appropriate for COPs debt service, as an event of non-appropriation would risk forfeiture by the district of all facilities under the master lease - a total of 61 schools and 10 school additions.

FAVORABLE DEBT POSITION

Overall debt ratios are low at 2.2% of market value and \\$2,262 per capita inclusive of overlapping debt obligations of the county and several special districts and local municipalities. The district has no current plans for additional debt. Capital improvements are scheduled to be funded from a combination of existing reserves in the district's capital projects fund and annual revenue from the voter-approved capital outlay sales tax and impact fees. Fitch considers the district's variable rate position (\\$193.7 million) manageable given its very strong liquidity and history of market access. The district's variable rate positions are hedged and while the aggregate market valuation of the swaps is \\$56.6 million in favor of the counterparties, the district is not exposed to risk of collateral posting.

LOW RETIREE LIABILITIES
Pension benefits are provided through the Florida Retirement System and Health Insurance Subsidy (HIS) Pension Plan, each a state-administered cost-sharing multiple-employer pension defined benefit pension plan. At June 30, 2015 the district reported a net pension liability totaling \\$429.1 million or 0.3% of market value related to its participation in FRS and HIS. The district's OPEB liability was significantly reduced to \\$47.3 million in fiscal 2015 from \\$240.2 million as a result of plan changes to exclude any subsidy of retirees once they reach the age of 65.