OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings says that BNP Paribas' (BNPP; A+/Stable/a+) 4Q15 results highlight the benefits of the bank's diversified business model. BNPP's healthy earnings generation despite headwinds in some of its home markets is a positive rating driver. The results also show that cost containment, especially in corporate and institutional banking (CIB), will be key for BNPP to deliver on its profitability targets. BNPP also unveiled higher risk-weighted capital ratio targets in response to increased regulatory buffer requirements, closing the gap with most of its European global trading and universal bank (GTUB) peers.

BNPP reported EUR2bn pre-tax profit for 4Q15, adjusted for a EUR160m gain from changes in the fair value of own debt, a EUR993m goodwill impairment charge (largely relating to its Italian subsidiary BNL) and a EUR352m gain on the sale of a non-strategic stake. Adjusted pre-tax profit was down 16% yoy and 26% qoq, although the operating divisions' performance was broadly stable yoy.

For 2015 as a whole, BNPP's adjusted pre-tax profit rose 5% to EUR10.2bn, excluding similar items. Good revenue growth in the bank's non-domestic retail banking businesses (concentrated in the international financial services division) and in CIB more than offset pressure on revenue in two of BNPP's home retail banking franchises (France and Italy). BNPP generated a 9.2% return on equity in 2015 excluding EUR708m of cumulated non-recurring charges (mostly EUR314m gain from changes in the fair value of own debt, EUR993m goodwill impairment charge, a EUR839m gain on the sale of a non-strategic stake, and EUR793m restructuring costs). This is slightly below the bank's 10% return on equity target for 2016, and we believe that focus on costs will be key to reach this objective, especially as higher compliance and regulatory expenses are weighing on the bank's cost base.

In 4Q15, BNPP reported a 9% pre-tax profit decline in its home retail banking businesses (France, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg and Germany), although a significant part of this came from a non-recurring contribution to the resolution process of some Italian banks (EUR65m). We believe that material improvement in the division's profitability will continue to rely on the bank's specialised businesses and Belgian retail banking operations until loan demand in France picks up properly to offset current net interest margin compression and loan impairment charges (LICs) abate more significantly in Italy. In France, the wave of interest rate renegotiation on housing loans started to crystallise in revenue. In Italy, LICs still absorbed most of the pre-impairment profit, although they reduced throughout 2015 from their 2014 peak.

BNPP's international financial services business, which includes its consumer finance, non-home retail banking, insurance and wealth management businesses, generated almost half of the group's pre-tax income (excluding corporate centre) in 4Q15. Revenue was up 6% yoy at constant scope and exchange rate, with growth in all businesses. The division's cost-income ratio remained satisfactory, at 61% in 4Q15, despite higher regulatory costs in the US. In wealth and asset management, BNPP had solid net new money inflows of EUR15bn in 4Q15, bringing inflows to EUR36bn for 2015 as a whole, after more mixed performance in 2014. This benefited operating profit, which grew 9% in 2015 (up 24% in 4Q15 yoy).

4Q15 performance in BNPP's CIB business, which includes its capital markets, securities and corporate banking activities, was marred by rising costs. While part of the costs increase was due to higher regulatory expenses in the US, the division's 75% cost-income ratio in 4Q15 (71% in 2015) highlights the challenges in improving cost efficiency. BNPP unveiled its plan to reduce its CIB cost base by 12% by end-2019.

Unlike most of its GTUB peers, BNPP posted revenue growth in its capital markets business in 4Q15 (+9% yoy). Revenue in fixed income activities was up 1%, with good performance in the foreign exchange, credit and rates businesses offsetting lower bond issuance volumes. Revenue in the equities and prime services increased significantly (29%), although performance was weak in 4Q14.

BNPP continued to report sound performance in its corporate banking business. The cost-income ratio was 56% in 4Q15 (60% in 2015), and the decline in the operating profit was only due to LICs normalisation, which remained fairly low. Revenue was up 6% yoy in 4Q15, signalling that the scaling back in the energy and commodities sector that BNPP initiated in 2013 was now largely completed. BNPP's net exposure to the oil and gas sector was EUR26bn at end-2015, three-quarters of which was to investment grade counterparties. While any prolonged period of low oil prices would affect BNPP's portfolio asset quality, we expect losses to remain manageable given its moderate exposure to higher risk segments (BNPP has no US reserve-based lending and exposure to oil and gas services were a limited EUR5.9bn at end-2015). Impaired loans for these exposure accounted for 1% of the total oil and gas portfolio.

BNPP has revised its Basel III capital ratio targets, aiming for a 12% common equity Tier 1 (CET1) and 15% total capital ratios by end-2018. BNPP's CET1 ratio increased 20bp on retained earnings in 4Q15 to 10.9%. We expect BNPP's healthy earnings generation and divestment of First Hawaiian Bank (expected in 2016) to help the bank meet its CET1 capital ratio target earlier than at end-2018. BNPP made further progress in improving its fully-applied Basel III leverage ratio, which reached 4% at end-2015. The 20bp qoq improvement was supported by the material fall in BNPP's capital markets activities' leverage exposure.