Fitch: Rated O&G Infrastructure Projects Can Withstand USD20 Oil
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings' portfolio of rated oil and gas infrastructure projects in the Middle East and US still have some headroom at current weak oil prices. This resilience reflects either a favourable competitive position, especially in the Middle East, or the transfer of price risk to strong counterparties under robust contracts.
Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Company Limited II and Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Company Limited 3 (together RasGas, A+/Stable) have the highest exposure among rated projects to current low oil prices. But even using conservative estimates for the relationship between liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil prices, RasGas' break-even prices for servicing its senior debt are around USD20/bbl for oil and USD2/Mmbtu for LNG.
Dolphin Energy (A+/Stable) is significantly less exposed to oil price weakness due to its long-term fixed-price gas supply contracts and we estimate it would able to breakeven at an oil price of USD1.3/bbl.
Fitch-rated US oil and gas projects generally benefit from contractual provisions that protect against oil price volatility. Cameron LNG (A-/Stable) relies upon availability-based, fixed-price capacity payments with no linkage to market pricing or throughput. Similarly, Express Pipeline's (A-/Stable) ship-or-pay agreements provide for fixed pricing on nearly 90% of project capacity. Merey Sweeny's (BBB+/Stable) offtake agreement also includes floor pricing, though the project's credit quality is primarily based upon a parent guarantee of debt service.
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