Fitch Rates Nebraska Public Power District's 2016 General Revs 'A+'; Outlook Stable
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'A+' rating to the following Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD) revenue bonds:
--Approximately $71.7 million general revenue bonds 2016 series A.
--Approximately $78 million general revenue bonds 2016
series B.
The 2016 series A and B bonds are scheduled for negotiated sale on January 26. Bond proceeds will be used to refund certain maturities of outstanding parity bonds for interest cost savings, fund the primary debt service reserve requirement and pay financing costs.
In addition, Fitch has affirmed the following ratings:
--$1.7 billion in outstanding general revenue bonds at 'A+'.
Fitch Ratings has also withdrawn the 'A+' rating assigned to Nebraska Public Power District (NE) general revenue bonds series 2014D as the bond did not sell.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
SECURITY
The bonds are secured by net revenues of NPPD's electric system (the system). The 2016 series A and B bonds will also be secured by a cash funded debt service reserve.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
REGIONAL WHOLESALE ELECTRIC PROVIDER: NPPD functions principally as a competitively priced wholesale electric provider serving directly or indirectly all or parts of 86 of Nebraska's 93 counties. NPPD's expansive service area has remained relatively stable with an agriculture-centered economy that continues to report exceptionally low unemployment.
RENEWAL OF WHOLESALE CONTRACTS: Long-term wholesale contracts with the vast majority of NPPD's 40 of the wholesale municipalities and 23 public power districts (PPDs) representing nearly half of NPPD's total revenue base were recently extended for an additional 20 years. Extension of the contracts is considered by Fitch to be positive development as it should provide greater certainty related to long-range resource planning efforts, and stabilize future energy sales and related revenues.
SOLID FINANCIAL PROFILE: Fitch calculated debt service coverage (DSC) continues at a healthy level, averaging 1.55x over the prior six years, while liquidity has more than doubled over the same period to a more robust 208 days of cash on hand at the close of fiscal 2014. Both metrics compare well to Fitch's median ratios of 1.28x and 114 days cash for comparably rated wholesale systems. Preliminary financial results for fiscal 2015 show debt service coverage at a sound level, approximating 1.80x.
DIVERSIFIED POWER SUPPLY RESOURCES: Power supplied by NPPD is derived from a fairly diverse portfolio of owned generating assets and purchased power agreements expected to be sufficient for the long term. Available capacity is varied by fuel type and number of units with no single resource accounting for more than 25% of total available capacity. NPPD's coal-fired generating resources are equipped with environmental controls expected to meet existing environmental regulations. Potential costs to comply with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP) are well beyond the current planning period but could ultimately be meaningful.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
IMPROVING FINANCIAL TRENDS: Continuation of Nebraska Public Power District's current trends, including steady increases in available liquidity, maintenance of solid cash flow metrics, gradually improving leverage ratios and preservation of competitive wholesale and retail rates would be viewed favorably and should provide needed flexibility to comply with the CPP.
LOAD REDUCTION: Considerable use of the load release provision included in the recently signed wholesale contracts, while not anticipated, could reduce energy sales over time, further narrowing the base on which fixed costs must be recovered and resulting in downward rating pressure.
CREDIT PROFILE
STABLE SERVICE TERRITORY
NPPD is Nebraska's largest electric utility, operating principally as a wholesale system providing all-requirements power supply to 51 municipalities, 24 PPDs and one electric cooperative pursuant to wholesale power contracts. The system's considerable service area excludes the state's two largest cities, Omaha and Lincoln, but nonetheless includes a substantial population estimated at 600,000. Steady growth in employment throughout the service territory's predominantly agriculture-centered economy has resulted in exceptionally low unemployment and overall stability among NPPD's customer base. The state's unemployment rate has remained well below 5%, including during the most recent economic recession.
EXTENSION OF WHOLESALE CONTRACTS ALLEVIATES RATING PRESSURE
Effective January 1, 2016, NPPD entered into new 20-year wholesale power contracts (the 2016 contracts) with all but 13 of its current wholesale customers, whereby remaining customers will continue purchasing their total demand and energy requirements from NPPD. Conversely, nine of the 13 wholesale customers that have provided notice required under the 2002 contracts and are expected to level off or reduce requirements by various amounts over a four-year period beginning in fiscal 2017. Fitch does not expect the loss in load will be meaningful to NPPD as combined revenue from the nine customers accounted for less than 5% of total revenue in fiscal 2015.
MANAGEABLE CAPITAL NEEDS
Capital improvement program costs through 2017 appear manageable. NPPD expects to fund about $306 million worth of capital projects over the next two years, a portion ($41.5 million) of which will be for Southwest Power Pool (SPP)-authorized transmission projects, which are fully reimbursed by SPP. Additional capital expenditures extending to 2018-2021 could be as much as $629 million depending in part on regulatory developments. Long-term debt issuance, including a $200 financing tentatively planned for the latter half of this year, will continue to fund the majority of capex. Excess cash flow will support the balance of planned spending.
Scheduled amortization of existing principal payments should offset planned debt issuance over the next two years and allow for continued improvement in leverage ratios. NPPD's debt burden and equity position are favorable relative to most wholesale systems rated by Fitch.
Potential costs to comply with the EPA's CPP are outside of the current planning period, but could be meaningful over the longer-term given NPPD's exposure to coal-fired resources. Initial state implementation plans may be submitted as late as September 2018 with interim compliance goals beginning in 2022, making the effects on NPPD more of a longer-term credit concern, in Fitch's view.
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