OREANDA-NEWS. January 21, 2016. Stocks staggered to a second straight weekly loss to start the New Year. The S&P 500 has dropped 8 percent, while the NASDAQ has fallen 10 percent and the Russell 2000 11 percent. Stocks had held up quite well through Thursday, before ending sharply lower on Friday ahead of the long holiday weekend.

The S&P now sits 12 percent below its May peak, the NASDAQ is down 14 percent, and the Russell 2000 is in bear market territory, down 22 percent. Oil continued to slide, as West Texas Intermediate lost 11 percent to close below \\$30 a barrel. Since the start of the year, oil is down 21 percent. With sanctions on Iran being lifted, the prospect of even more supply coming on line only adds to the negative tone for oil. In one measure of how bad things have gotten, in North Dakota the price quoted by one refiner for a less desirable grade of high sulfur crude was \\$-.50 a barrel.

Bonds continued to rally, with the yield on the ten-year note falling 8 basis points to 2.04 percent. The two-year note yield dropped to 0.85 from 0.93 percent. The Barclays Aggregate Bond index is now higher on the year by 1 percent. Riskier high yield bonds moved in the opposite direction, as the yield-to-maturity of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II index soared to 9.52 from 9.03 percent. The option adjusted spread over governments ballooned to 789 basis points from 723 the week prior, the widest in four years. The Barclays High Yield index is lower on the year by almost 3 percent.

Markets Around the Globe Falling Into (or close to) Bear Territory

The other major concern of late, the Chinese yuan, was stable last week. On the other hand, Chinese stocks were down 9 percent, following a 10 percent decline the prior week. The Shanghai Composite is now down 44 percent from its June peak. While U.S. markets were closed on Monday, China’s markets were modestly positive to start the week, and the yuan was slightly stronger, following an increase in reserve requirements for offshore banks trading in yuan.

On Tuesday, China’s markets moved higher following a host of economic reports that showed a continuing slowdown, but were not as soft as feared. Emerging market (EM) stocks lost more than 4 percent last week overall, leaving the MSCI EM index down one-third from its April peak. Japan lost 3 percent, and Eurozone stocks moved into bear market territory last week with a drop of 2.7 percent. The EuroStoxx 50 index is now down 23 percent from its April high. European shares are rallying in early Tuesday trading, taking their cue from China.

We now have bear markets in Emerging Markets, Eurozone and U.S. small cap equities, with markets in the U.K. and Japan within shouting distance. We also have bear markets in volatility, oil, copper and other commodities.

By comparison, the S&P 500 looks like a relative port in a storm. The reason is that some sectors have held up far better than others. From the market peak in May, the S&P 500 has declined by 12 percent. The worst performing sector has been energy, down 32 percent, followed by materials, -25 percent. Among a group of general market performers have been industrials, financials, healthcare, and tech, down from -15 to -10 percent. The best performers were consumer discretionary, -7 percent, utilities -3 and consumer staples -2 percent.

So far this year, the worst performers are still materials -12 percent, and energy -10, but now include financials -10 percent and consumer discretionary -9 percent. Market performers include tech and industrials -8, healthcare -7 and the best performers are still consumer staples -4 percent and utilities + 0.3 percent.

Two ‘Should be Positive’ Sectors now Among the Weakest

That both financials and consumer discretionary stocks are among the weakest in the latest selloff is noteworthy. These sectors are widely expected to be the strongest this year, generating the most solid earnings growth. They are focused primarily on the stronger domestic economy and both have undergone years of balance sheet rebuilding. Higher interest rates were being welcomed as an income driver for financial firms. But now, concerns about the pace of global growth have cast doubts on the view that consumers will remain mostly insulated from weakness elsewhere, and that interest rates will rise as expected. Last week, a few weak economic reports in the U.S. did nothing to suggest otherwise, as both retail sales and industrial production were weaker than expected.

Markets are probably not likely to stabilize until oil finds a bottom. Cheaper oil is a windfall, but that is being overlooked. So far, this latest selloff continues to echo the August correction, at least in terms of its magnitude. As was the case then, we have not seen any evidence of widespread fear and capitulation selling this time, but it will come as no surprise if we retest those lows. Sentiment has certainly turned sharply negative. In the meantime, some firmer economic data and better-than-expected earnings would help.

Important Disclosures:

The S&P 500 is an index containing the stocks of 500 large-cap corporations, most of which are American. The index is the most notable of the many indices owned and maintained by Standard & Poor's, a division of McGraw-Hill.

The NASDAQ composite index measures all NASDAQ domestic and international based common type stocks listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

The Russell 2000® Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index made up of the 2,000 smallest US companies in the Russell 3000.

The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a market value-weighted index that tracks the daily price, coupon, pay-downs, and total return performance of fixed-rate, publicly placed, dollar-denominated, and non-convertible investment grade debt issues with at least \\$250 million par amount outstanding and with at least one year to final maturity.

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch High-Yield Bond Master II Index is an unmanaged index that tracks the performance of below investment grade U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market.

Barclays Capital High Yield Municipal Bond Index: Is an unmanaged index made up of bonds that are non-investment grade, unrated, or rated below Ba1 by Moody's Investors Service with a remaining maturity of at least one year.

The Shanghai Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all stocks on China’s Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.

The EURO STOXX 50 is a market capitalization-weighted stock index of 50 large, blue-chip European companies operating within eurozone nations. The universe for selection is found within the 18 Dow Jones EURO STOXX Supersector indexes, from which members are ranked by size and placed on a selection list. 
 
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