Fitch 2016 Sector Outlooks Overview Tool Highlights More Negative Rating Prospects
Rating outlooks indicate the direction in which a rating is likely to move over a one- to two-year period. The sector outlook indicates the underlying fundamental trend of asset prices in the industry as a whole, capturing the operating environment. The complete list of outlook reports is available in our 2016 Outlook Overview Tool, published today.
Overall, 66% of sector outlooks are stable but 27% are negative, up from 14% at the start of 2015. The drag from emerging markets is evident in the higher share of negative sector outlooks for this region at 32%. Sectors under pressure include:
-most oil and gas and related industries
-natural resources
-retail in Europe and China
-banking systems in many countries in Asia-Pacific, CIS, the Gulf countries as well as Canada
-UK, German and French life insurance
The Rating Outlook is Stable on 81% of sectors, unchanged on last year, reflecting the stability of Issuer Default Ratings. Negative Rating Outlooks apply to a wide range of corporate sectors, especially in EM regions, including oil and gas, basic materials, pharmaceuticals and tobacco. Sovereign regions with Negative Rating Outlooks include the Middle East and Africa.
Sectors with a more positive bias are:
- North American airlines
- US REITs and China homebuilding
- Irish and Philippine banks
- Spanish, Nordic and Hungarian banks
- Residential mortgages in the UK, Netherlands, Ireland, Spain and Portugal
- Peripheral eurozone SME loans
- Prime commercial real estate in some continental countries.
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