Fitch APAC Corporates: Rating Outlooks Mostly Stable; Negative Sectors up Sharply
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings says that the bulk (85%) of its portfolio of 302 publicly rated corporate entities is on stable outlook for 2016. However, 15 out of 36 (42%) corporate sectors are now on negative outlook, a dramatic rise from end-2015 (18%). These include oil & gas, Chinese department stores, Hong Kong retail, Chinese metals & mining, Indian steel, Indonesian homebuilders, Singapore hospitality and industrial REITs, Asian crude palm oil, and the telecommunication markets in India, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Fitch today published its overall 2016 Outlook for APAC Corporates, drawing together key aspects from 36 separate sector outlook reports published in December 2015. The report lists and summarises key conclusions, and includes an Appendix with full details of the rating triggers for all of the agency's internationally rated corporates on non-stable outlooks and those rated 'CCC' and below.
Of the 27 publicly rated corporates where Fitch had a negative outlook or rating watch at end-2015, seven are in the metals & mining sector, and five in property/real estate. The near-term industry outlook for commodities continues to be volatile amid a deepening commodities rout caused by oversupply and waning demand. By geography, China accounts for 13 of our 27 publicly rated corporates with a negative outlook or rating watch, followed by India with four.
We have eight publicly rated corporates on positive outlook, four of which are in the Chinese property/homebuilding sector, in line with our overall positive sector outlook on Chinese homebuilders.
The report also highlights historical and forecast movements in net debt, EBITDAR and net leverage for the major APAC corporate sectors. Overall 2016 net leverage is forecast to remain at 2015's level of 2.1x, slightly above 2014's 1.9x. By major sector, we forecast leverage to rise over 2014-2016 for utilities and transportation, energy (oil & gas), metals & mining and telcos; but to decline for retail, leisure and consumer products (RLCP) and technology. By country, we forecast higher leverage for corporates in Indonesia and Australia.
Fitch distinguishes between the outlook for sectors as a whole and for its universe of rated entities within a sector. Of the 36 published reports, we have a negative overall sector outlook on 15, but a negative rating outlook on only three of these - China oil & gas, Indian steel and Chinese department stores. The reason for the lower proportion of negative rating outlooks is due to our rated universe typically comprising the financially stronger entities within each sector, with the ratings already taking into account many of the foreseeable downside risks.
Комментарии