15.01.2016, 00:55
Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker Update
OREANDA-NEWS. Sberbank Investment Research, the research department of Sberbank CIB, is publishing its fourteenth survey of the pan-Russian consumer, the Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker, which monitors consumer spending, savings and confidence trends across the country.
The fourteenth tracker remained at its low of -24% in 4Q15, in line with 3Q15 and what was seen in 4Q14. Despite accelerated ruble depreciation and a nosedive in oil prices last quarter, the Ivanovs seemed apathetic as they have generally stopped reacting to changes in the macro environment, news flow and other developments.
The main findings of the survey are shown below:
* There were no major Q-o-Q changes in the index components. However, the Ivanovs' personal wealth expectations for the next 12 months worsened and approached the 4Q14 low. This is probably due to persistently high inflation and increased unemployment fears. The percentage of Ivanovs who regard the Russian economy as shaky remained flat Q-o-Q at 85%. The results generally indicate that the Ivanovs do not expect any quick and easy improvement and as such feel indifferent, without any marked behavioral changes.
* The unemployment ratio rebounded to 11.0% from 11.7% in 3Q15, while the share of respondents who are afraid of being fired hovered close to historic high at 36%. 52% mentioned that there were either outright firings or headcount shrinking via attrition at their companies over the last three months, which took the net hiring index to another low, of -48%, after -43% in 3Q15. As a result, unemployment was the second biggest concern, cited by 56% of respondents (i.e. topped only by inflation).
* In 2015, 78% of Ivanovs did not see any wage indexation, yet 34% noted that it was planned. In 2016, 58% do not expect to see any wage indexation, while the remaining 42% are looking for an average salary increase of 6.7%. This suggests that the aggregate salary increase for the whole sample would be just 2.9%.
The fourteenth tracker remained at its low of -24% in 4Q15, in line with 3Q15 and what was seen in 4Q14. Despite accelerated ruble depreciation and a nosedive in oil prices last quarter, the Ivanovs seemed apathetic as they have generally stopped reacting to changes in the macro environment, news flow and other developments.
The main findings of the survey are shown below:
* There were no major Q-o-Q changes in the index components. However, the Ivanovs' personal wealth expectations for the next 12 months worsened and approached the 4Q14 low. This is probably due to persistently high inflation and increased unemployment fears. The percentage of Ivanovs who regard the Russian economy as shaky remained flat Q-o-Q at 85%. The results generally indicate that the Ivanovs do not expect any quick and easy improvement and as such feel indifferent, without any marked behavioral changes.
* The unemployment ratio rebounded to 11.0% from 11.7% in 3Q15, while the share of respondents who are afraid of being fired hovered close to historic high at 36%. 52% mentioned that there were either outright firings or headcount shrinking via attrition at their companies over the last three months, which took the net hiring index to another low, of -48%, after -43% in 3Q15. As a result, unemployment was the second biggest concern, cited by 56% of respondents (i.e. topped only by inflation).
* In 2015, 78% of Ivanovs did not see any wage indexation, yet 34% noted that it was planned. In 2016, 58% do not expect to see any wage indexation, while the remaining 42% are looking for an average salary increase of 6.7%. This suggests that the aggregate salary increase for the whole sample would be just 2.9%.
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