OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Banca UBAE's (UBAE) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with Stable Outlook. The Viability Rating (VR) has also been affirmed at 'bb'. A full list of rating actions is provided at the end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
IDRS AND VR
UBAE's IDRs are driven by the bank's standalone strength, as expressed in the VR. The ratings are constrained by some dependence of its business model on deposit funding from its majority shareholder, Libyan Foreign Bank (LFB). The ratings primarily reflect UBAE's niche trade finance franchise and small size. The ratings also take into account the bank's exposure towards potentially volatile countries and some reliance on certain businesses and clients, which result in high concentration, a feature which is not unusual for a specialist trade finance bank.

Fitch views UBAE's risks as adequately controlled and, as a result, its asset quality is in line with other international trade finance banks rated by the agency. UBAE's problem loans in relation to its business volumes (1.8% of on- balance-sheet exposure at end-September 2015) is low, due to the bank's long-standing relationships with its clients, which include entities related to the Libyan Central Bank, which is LFB's owner, for the long-term financing of large infrastructure as well as large Italian exporters.

UBAE's funding is concentrated, with a significant part provided by the parent. Funding provided by LFB to finance UBAE's commercial activities has been fairly stable over time. On the other hand, the liquidity received from LFB in the form of deposits can fluctuate quite significantly, depending on LFB's needs to invest in its own country or cashflow generation from events such as the opening of a new oil well in Libya. UBAE invests LFB's liquid resources in money markets, typically with short-term maturities and matching currency. Overall, UBAE's liquidity is adequate, given the self-liquidating nature of its short-term activities and large money market placements.

UBAE's capitalisation is acceptable for its business model and concentration risk. However, its capital base remains small in absolute terms, limiting its ability to diversify its business and making it vulnerable to shocks.

Revenue generation from UBAE's commercial business has been broadly stable over the years, while the proceedings from its interbank investments or securities transactions tend to be more volatile. Similarly to most peers, the cost base is high and ability to make efficiencies is limited.

The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that UBAE will continue to operate with an unchanged risk appetite and to benefit from ordinary funding support from LFB.

SUPPORT RATING
Fitch believes that in case of need, UBAE would first look to its majority shareholder, LFB, for extraordinary support. LFB has over time shown a high propensity to support UBAE, as it considers the bank important to its international strategy. However, UBAE's Support Rating of '5' reflects Fitch's view that LFB's ability to provide support cannot be relied upon given the uncertain economic and political environment in Libya.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
IDRS AND VR
The concentration of UBAE's portfolio means that the ratings are sensitive to material deterioration in the quality of one or more of its counterparties. Given the bank's dependence on the parent for funding, the ratings are also sensitive to an unexpected withdrawal of such funding, threatening UBAE's liquidity profile and challenging its business model. This could happen for example if a new regime takes over in Libya, including control of central bank operations (LFB is owned by the Central Bank of Libya).

An upgrade of UBAE's ratings is unlikely given its fairly small size, its concentrated operations in potentially volatile markets and funding dependence. Greater diversification of UBAE's funding profile, a material capital increase and significant improvements in Libya's operating environment would bring upside rating potential.

SUPPORT RATING
UBAE's Support Rating is sensitive to changes in Fitch's assumptions regarding potential support from LFB and may be upgraded if Fitch believes that some degree of support could come from the LFB, which would, however, require a certain degree of access to the LFB as well as a sufficient improvement of the economic and political environment in Libya.

The rating actions are as follows:

Long-term IDR: affirmed at 'BB'; Outlook Stable
Short-term IDR: affirmed at 'B'
Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bb'
Support Rating: affirmed at '5'.