Fitch Places CLC II Class B-2 on Rating Watch Negative; Affirms Nelnet 2006-1 Class B
--Class B-2 'Asf'.
Key Rating Drivers (CLC Trust II):
Maturity Risk: The Rating Watch Negative action is based on the heightened risk of CLC Trust II class B notes missing their legal final maturity of Jan. 25, 2047 under Fitch's stress scenarios, which would result in an event of default. In an event of such technical default, Fitch would expect ultimate repayment of full principal and interest after the legal final. The magnitude of the rating action could vary depending on remaining time to maturity, recent payment trends, issuer actions such as loan purchases, or other external factors. Absent any issuer actions, structural or other mitigants, it is possible that the ratings could be downgraded to non-investment grade categories.
The analysis conducted by Fitch in the rating watch action is consistent with the analysis described in the press release "Fitch Places 238 U.S. FFELP ABS Tranches on Rating Watch Negative" dated Dec. 18, 2015.
Additionally, Fitch has remodelled the following Nelnet 2006-1 note, incorporating the feature of the transaction to enter turbo pay down following the May 2022 distribution date, which resulted in the following action:
Nelnet Student Loan Trust 2006-1:
--Class B affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable.
Key Rating Drivers (Nelnet 2006-1):
High Collateral Quality: The trust collateral consists of 100% Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) loans. The credit quality of the trust collateral is high, in Fitch's opinion, based on the guarantees provided by the transaction's eligible guarantors and reinsurance provided by the U.S. Department of Education (ED) for at least 97% of principal and accrued interest. The current U.S. sovereign rating is at 'AAA' with a Stable Outlook.
Sufficient Credit Enhancement (CE): While both the senior and subordinate notes will benefit from overcollateralization (OC) and future excess spread, the senior notes also benefit from subordination provided by the class B note. As of October 2015, total parity is 100.05% and senior parity is 104.58% (4.38% CE). Cash will continue to be released from the trust given that the Principal Distribution Amount is met each period.
Adequate Liquidity Support: Liquidity support for note is provided by a reserve account currently sized at its floor of $2,951,197.
Acceptable Servicing Capabilities: Nelnet Inc. as the servicer is responsible for the day-to-day servicing of this trust. In Fitch's opinion, Nelnet is an acceptable servicer of FFELP student loans.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Since the FFELP student loan ABS relies on the U.S. government to reimburse defaults, 'AAAsf' FFELP ABS ratings will likely move in tandem with the 'AAA' U.S. sovereign rating. Aside from the U.S. sovereign rating, defaults, basis risk, and loan extension risk account for the majority of the risk embedded in FFELP student loan transactions. Additional defaults, basis shock beyond Fitch's published stresses, lower than expected payment speed, and other factors could result in future downgrades. Likewise, a buildup of CE driven by positive excess spread given favorable basis factor conditions could lead to future upgrades.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
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