Fitch Affirms Ooredoo Tunisie at 'AAA(tun)'; Withdraws Rating
Fitch has withdrawn OT's rating as the issuer has chosen to stop participating in the ratings process for commercial reasons. Accordingly, Fitch will no longer provide ratings or analytical coverage for OT. Fitch still rates OT's parent company, Ooredoo Q.S.C., with a Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'A+' with a Stable Outlook.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
OT is the leading operator in the Tunisian mobile market, although its 45% subscriber market share has been under pressure. The shift to mobile data with the current roll-out of 3G and the announced intention to roll-out 4G networks from 2016 is likely to maintain competitive intensity in the Tunisian mobile market.
The Tunisian economy and the mobile market have been impacted by political unrest. Increases in regulatory (roaming, termination rates) and competitive pressure have also contributed to significant declines in average revenue per user over the past two years.
OT's cash generation is still healthy although the company is losing market share and its high pre-dividend free cash flow margin is being eroded. The mobile network sharing agreement signed with Tunisie Telecom should help moderate capital intensity over the medium term. We expect leverage to remain within the 1x FFO adjusted net leverage threshold for the current rating as long as the dividend policy remains conservative.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for OT include:
- Revenue and EBITDA to continue to decline in 4Q15 and 2016, but at a slower pace than in 2014 and 9M15.
- Capex as percentage of revenue to remain stable at around 18-19% in 2015 and 2016, excluding spectrum.
- Dividend payments to moderate after 2015.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
No longer relevant as the ratings have been withdrawn.
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