OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has today affirmed The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited's (HKSB) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AA-' with a Stable Outlook and its Viability Rating (VR) at 'aa-'. A full list of rating actions is available at the end of this commentary.

HKSB's parent HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC, AA-/Stable/aa-) and its material subsidiaries HSBC Bank plc and HSBC USA Inc are covered in separate rating action comments.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDRS, VR AND SENIOR DEBT
HKSB is a 100% indirectly owned subsidiary of HSBC. Its IDRs are driven by its VR and reflect HKSB's market leadership in Hong Kong, sound profitability, low risk appetite, solid capitalisation and robust funding and liquidity profile.

The ratings incorporate the competitive advantage HKSB's company profile enjoys from being part of HSBC. The group's global network significantly supports HKSB's profit as it generates business referrals from outside of Asia and at the same time attracts customers from Asia-Pacific who seek financial services beyond the region. Other benefits from being part of HSBC, which feed into the rating assessment, include management oversight with business lines operated globally, and support, compliance and finance functions being tightly integrated.

Organic China-related growth on-shore and through cross-border activities will continue to drive HKSB's risk profile, in particular as HSBC develops a presence in southern China. Property-related lending and single-borrower concentrations are other material risks.

HSBC's gross mainland China exposure, as defined by Fitch based on HKSB's reporting, amounted to USD173bn, or 2.7x HKSB's Fitch Core Capital (FCC), at end-June 2015 (2014: 2.6x). The exposure breaks down into USD44bn related to the central government, USD45bn cross-border claims on mainland banks, USD13bn local governments, USD44bn Chinese borrowers, USD18bn for use in China and USD9bn others. It includes the China activities of HKSB's 62% owned subsidiary, Hang Seng Bank, which comprise 22% of the group's total China exposure. HKSB's exposure could increase to up to 2.8x its FCC if local bank claims in local currency were included.

The ratings reflect Fitch's view that HKSB will continue to generate reliable earnings, a significant portion of which it will upstream in line with HSBC's group policies. Its Fitch eligible capital ratio (FEC) has significantly improved to a healthy 12.8% at end-1H15 (FCC: 11.6%), which is broadly in line with the regulatory end-point common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 12.5% (2014: 10.7%). HKSB's Basel III leverage ratio on end-point Tier 1 capital was a sound 5.2% at end-1H15.

The stable Outlook captures Fitch's expectation that HKSB will maintain sound underwriting standards whilst accelerating business growth in the Asia-Pacific region.

HKSB's senior debt is rated at the same level as its Long-Term IDR as they constitute unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the bank.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
We have affirmed HKSB's SR at '1' to reflect our opinion that there is an extremely high likelihood of extraordinary support from its parent HSBC should this be required. The SR reflects Fitch's view that HSBC has a very strong propensity to support HKSB and would be able to do so, as indicated by its rating and taking into account the size of any likely solvency support that would be required relative to the financial flexibility of the group. Our view that the parent's propensity to support is very strong is mainly based on HKSB's integral role in the group, the huge implications for the wider group should the bank default and our view that the disposal of HKSB is very hard to conceive.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

IDRS, VR AND SENIOR DEBT
A downgrade of HKSB's VR could lead to a downgrade of its IDR and senior debt ratings if, at the same time, HSBC's VR is also downgraded. This is because institutional support from its parent HSBC provides a floor at the same rating level due to HKSB's core role. While a downgrade of HKSB could trigger a downgrade of HSBC given the entities' relative sizes, there is no automatic link as HSBC's wider diversification and financial flexibility are mitigants. The ability of HSBC to provide support is indicated by its VR.

HKSB's IDR could in the future benefit from the build-up of a sustainable junior debt buffer. We consider it likely that HKSB's senior creditors will, over time, benefit from loss-absorbing debt issued out of a separate Hong Kong-based holding company and injected into HKSB. When this will happen depends on the local implementation of the Financial Stability Board's total loss-absorbing capacity requirements and home and host regulator coordination.

The bank's VR is sensitive to the pace of HSBC's China expansion, the quality of such new exposure and their size relative to the bank's capitalisation and earnings. A material increase in risk appetite would lead to a downgrade.

Increasing single-name concentrations or otherwise heightened vulnerability to worse-than-cyclical asset deterioration across its wide Asian operation could also hurt the VR, as would diminishing cohesiveness between HKSB and its subsidiaries as well as between HKSB and the wider HSBC group.

The potential for an upgrade of HKSB's VR is limited as the rating relies on operational support from HSBC and given our assessment of HKSB's operating environment.

The senior debt ratings will move in tandem with the Long-Term IDR.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
The SR is sensitive to significant changes to the parent's ability to support HKSB that could be indicated by a change to the parent's rating or could relate to a change in the size of HKSB relative to HSBC. It is also sensitive to any negative changes to Fitch's view of the parent's propensity to provide support.

The rating actions are as follows:

Long-Term IDR affirmed at 'AA-'; Outlook Stable
Short-Term IDR affirmed at 'F1+'
Viability Rating affirmed at 'aa-'
Support Rating affirmed at '1'
Senior unsecured debt affirmed at 'AA-'