OREANDA-NEWS. November 30, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the City of Rennes' Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'AA' and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. The Outlook is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed Rennes' EUR200m EMTN programme at 'AA' and Short-term rating at 'F1+'.

The affirmation reflects Rennes' sound operating performance, moderate indebtedness, strong governance and robust economy. The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's view that despite expected weakening over the medium term, the city will be able and willing to keep financial metrics compatible with the ratings.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
In application of the French "Metropolis" law, the city of Rennes transferred a number of its responsibilities (such as road maintenance) to the Metropolis of Rennes (RM, AA/Stable/F1+), as of 1 January 2015. This led to a reduction in capital expenditure and debt, neutralised by a slightly reduced operating margin through the transfers of both operating revenue and spending items and a downward recalculation of the operating transfers between the city and RM. Notwithstanding the expected state transfer cuts until 2017, Fitch considers the reform does not affect Rennes' debt repayment capacity.

Despite pressure on operating revenue due to the cuts in state transfers, Fitch considers that Rennes will continue to report a sound fiscal performance. Fitch assumes that Rennes will curb operating spending through implementing a series of cost-cutting measures although it will not fully compensate for the expected decline in revenue (-2.1% a year on average until 2018), considering the relative rigidity of spending (such as staff costs). Combined with the change in scope of responsibilities, this will result in a decline in the operating margin to around 9% of operating revenue in 2018, from 15.6% in 2014. Our forecasts do not factor in any tax hikes as the city has committed not to implement them over the medium term.

Capital expenditure reached EUR92m in 2014, focusing on roads, infrastructure and education and is expected to decline sharply from 2015, to EUR49m a year in 2015-2018. This is due to the transfer of competencies. Consequently, despite the weaker operating balance, the self-financing of capital expenditure is expected to improve to around 72% (after debt repayment) by 2018 from 61% in 2014.

Direct debt is expected to decline to EUR152m at year-end 2015, or a sound 54% of current revenue, from EUR172m (55%) in 2014 as an effect of the reduced scope of competencies and the transfer of debt commitments to RM. In the medium term, debt is expected to remain moderate in absolute terms and relative to the current revenue. However, through the expected decline in current margin, the direct risk payback ratio (including other Fitch classified debt) may weaken to seven years in 2018, from five years in 2014. We expect the debt service capacity to remain sound, at 59% of operating revenue in 2018, from 46% in 2014. Debt guarantees are decreasing but were a still significant EUR152m at end-2014. Nonetheless, they are mostly for the benefit of social housing entities, which Fitch views as a highly regulated and low-risk sector.

Rennes benefits from a stable political framework and sound governance, with a high level of integration with its inter-municipal grouping, RM. Rennes' ability to implement its medium-term financial strategy is underpinned by its skilled administration and prudent financial management.

Rennes' economy remains dynamic, well diversified, and has a below-average unemployment rate (8% at 2Q15, 10% for metropolitan France), despite challenging industrial reshaping. Economic growth prospects are underpinned by a young, highly qualified population, low real-estate prices and outstanding public infrastructure.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
An upgrade could be triggered by a stable operating margin and a durable decrease of the direct risk to current balance ratio to below four years, provided the sovereign's rating is also upgraded.

A consistently weak operating margin together with a direct risk to current balance ratio increasing to over eight years could result in negative rating action.