Fitch: High UAE Islamic Finance Growth Continues in 2015
The Islamic banks' impaired loans /gross loans ratio was 5.3% at end-1H15, down from 11.5% at end-2012. Significant improvement continues and partly reflects increasing gross loans, but asset quality remains weaker than the conventional banks' average of 4%-6%. This is partly due to the larger proportion of retail loans at the Islamic banks (including personal residential mortgages), which made up more than 40% of their loans at end-2014. This has resulted in vulnerability and potentially large losses compared with conventional banks when the cycle turns. Positively for their ratings, Islamic banks have managed to reduce exposure to the real-estate sector, which was historically higher than for conventional banks.
UAE Islamic banks will benefit from the central bank's decision this year to include sharia-compliant securities in the range of instruments it accepts as collateral for accessing liquidity. Islamic banks often hold these securities but in the past have had to hold liquidity either in cash or monthly offerings of central bank sukuk, with maturities of three to six months. This puts them at a disadvantage to conventional banks, which have a wide range of interest-earning liquidity management options. Key UAE sukuk issues in 2015 were Dubai Islamic Bank's USD750m and Noor Bank's USD500m.
There is no Sharia Council in the UAE, the central bank has proposed a Higher Sharia Authority to provide unified supervision and issue guidelines to financial institutions in Islamic finance-related matters. This means that Islamic banks have their own Sharia boards, which can give different Fatwa on product or bank activities. The effect of the new authority would likely vary by bank, depending on whether the new rules increase or limit a specific bank's product offering.
Fitch expects total UAE bank loan growth of 10%-15% in 2015, closer to 10% as a sector average, slightly down on 2014 (around 13% for Fitch-rated banks). Growth is particularly high among Islamic banks. We expect loan growth to moderate slightly further in 2016, but remain in high single digits. Net income improved sharply across most banks in 2013-1H15, particularly due to reducing impairment charges. We expect these to remain low in 2016, but without further improvement.
The full report, UAE Islamic Banks Dashboard, is available at www.fitchratings.com.
Комментарии