OREANDA-NEWS. November 25, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Region of Midi-Pyrenees' Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'AA' and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1+'. The Outlook is Stable.

Fitch has also affirmed Midi-Pyrenees' EUR100m French commercial paper (billets de tresorerie) programme at 'F1+'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
The ratings reflect Midi-Pyrenees' current sound budgetary performance, which allows a strong self-financing capacity of investment, and moderate debt compared with its peers. From 2016, Midi-Pyrenees will merge with Languedoc-Roussillon and the new region could have a broadening of its responsibilities, which will be compensated by new resources. Despite an expected weakening of the current margin, we expect that the new region would be able to maintain a sound financial and economic profile compatible with the current ratings.

Fitch believes that the new region will achieve economies of scale over the medium- to long-term. We will monitor developments voted by the new regional government - which will be elected in December 2015 - through a new budget and will factor them into its forecasts.

Fitch considers that the merger would have a negative impact on the debt metrics of the new region via a weakening of the debt payback ratio. However, we expect debt metrics to recover by end-2018 to levels compatible with the current ratings through the implementation of corrective measures. We forecast Midi-Pyrenees' debt payback ratio should remain sound at 1.5 years for 2015 (2014: one year).

Over the medium-term, the dynamism of the new region's operating revenue would be affected by the lack of tax leeway and expected cuts in state transfers. Nevertheless, with operating expenditure restraint, the new region's current margin should remain in line with the current ratings (compared with an expected sound 26.8% at end-2015 for Midi-Pyrenees).

Capital spending on a consolidated basis should remain sizeable over the medium-term. Flexibility on capital spending is limited given Midi-Pyrenees' involvement in large investment projects, especially in transport infrastructure. We expect a modest increase in capital revenues to offset a weakening current balance, leaving Midi-Pyrenees with a sound self-financing capacity at 94.4% for 2015.

Liquidity is underpinned by predictable cash flows and diverse credit lines. Midi-Pyrenees' liquidity management policy has broadened to include the issuance of French commercial paper (EUR100m in 2014). Fitch believes the new region would have sufficient bank loans and revolving credit lines.

We expect limited impact from the merger on the new region's socio economic indicators. The merged region generated a GDP per capita of EUR25,220 in 2012, compared with EUR27,198 for Midi-Pyrenees. Midi-Pyrenees is one of the most attractive French business destinations, given its dynamic economy driven by investments in research and development.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
An upgrade of France's sovereign rating (AA/Stable), combined with an improvement of the intrinsic credit profile of the new region driven by an improving economy amid strong budgetary performance, could result in an upgrade of Midi Pyrenees' ratings.

A downgrade could result from negative rating action on the sovereign, or from the new region's weaker intrinsic credit profile resulting in a debt payback ratio of above four years.