Fitch Affirms Turkiye Finans and Kuveyt Turk at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
KEY RATING DRIVERS - IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND DEBT RATINGS
The banks' IDRs, National and senior debt ratings are driven by support from their majority shareholders, National Commercial Bank (NCB; A+/Negative) for Turkiye Finans and Kuwait Finance House (KFH; A'/Stable) for Kuveyt Turk. In Fitch's view, there is a high probability that Turkiye Finans and Kuveyt Turk would receive support from their parent banks in case of need, given that Turkey has been identified as a strategically important market by both NCB and KFH. The cost of support for NCB and KFH should be manageable given the banks' size relative to their respective parents. Kuveyt Turk accounted for around 26% of KFH's total assets at end-1H15, while Turkiye Finans represented a more moderate 10% of NCB's.
The banks' Long-term foreign currency IDRs are capped by Turkey's Country Ceiling of 'BBB'. Their 'BBB+' Long-term local currency IDRs also take into account country risks.
KEY RATING DRIVERS - VRs
Turkiye Finans's and Kuveyt Turk's VRs reflect their limited franchises. They also consider their rapid loan growth (albeit slower at Turkiye Finans in 1H15) and high level of foreign currency (including foreign currency indexed) lending, as a result of which Fitch views the banks' risk appetites as fairly high.
The VRs also consider the banks' still adequate liquidity and capital positions, which have been supported by regular cash injections (Kuveyt Turk) or subordinated debt (Turkiye Finans) from shareholders. Overall, Fitch considers the performance and asset quality ratios of both banks remain satisfactory despite having weakened (somewhat more so at Turkiye Finans). However, downside risks have increased given slower economic growth and lira depreciation.
Kuveyt Turk's performance metrics have remained reasonable (1H15: 12.3% ROE) and its asset quality indicators sound despite the operating environment. However, Turkiye Finans's ROE fell to 7.1% in 1H15 due to a rise in loan impairment charges (LICs, equal to a high 61% of pre-impairment operating profit in 1H15, up from 30% in 2014). This reflected growth in non-performing loans (NPLs; loans overdue by 90 days) and regulatory group 2 loans. NPLs remained fairly stable at Kuveyt Turk and LICs absorbed a more moderate, although still fairly high, 44% of pre-impairment profit in 1H15.
Both banks' profitability has historically been underpinned by wide margins due to their focus on SME loans, and their margins remain wider than the sector average. However, competition has resulted in some margin pressure, while in the case of Turkiye Finans funding costs have risen as it has increased more expensive local currency deposits. The profit share margins of both banks are indirectly affected by sector interest rates as they endeavour to remain competitive with conventional peer banks and the sector. Loan growth at Turkiye Finans and Kuveyt Turk has historically been above the sector average but it slowed at Turkiye Finans in 1H15, contributing to the bank's weaker overall performance.
Asset quality at TFKB and Kuveyt Turk remains adequate despite signs of weakening. The monthly amortising repayment structures of their largely short-term loan portfolios means that problem loans should be identified reasonably quickly, while Turkiye Finans's review of its loan book in response to rising bad loans provides some comfort that the extent of the bank's asset quality problems should now broadly be known. Nevertheless, the high level of foreign currency lending at both banks means that some asset quality deterioration is likely, in Fitch's view, particularly given the recent rapid depreciation of the Turkish lira. Recent rapid loan growth at Kuveyt Turk could also be flattering its NPL ratio to some extent.
Loans overdue by 90 days rose to 3.4% and 2.4% of gross loans, respectively, at Turkiye Finans and Kuveyt Turk at end-1H15 (up from 2. 5% and 2.2%, respectively, at end-1H14). These ratios exclude regulatory group 2 loans, which represent an additional source of potential credit risk. These loans were equal to an additional 4.7% of gross loans at Turkiye Finans, and a more moderate 2% at Kuveyt Turk, at end-1H15. In addition, reserve coverage of NPLs fell to 60% at Turkiye Finans, which was significantly lower than the sector average of 74%, while at Kuveyt Turk it remained broadly in line with the sector at 77%.
Credit risk at both banks is heightened by a focus on SME lending in the challenging Turkish operating environment, and by significant foreign currency lending at a time when the Turkish lira has rapidly depreciated. SME lending was equal to 51% and 31% of customer loans at Turkiye Finans and Kuveyt Turk, respectively, at end-1H15 while foreign currency lending (including foreign currency-indexed loans) amounted to 28% and 39% of customer loans, respectively. However, borrower concentrations at both banks are lower than the sector average.
Fitch believes that the banks' Fitch core capital/weighted risks ratios (end-1H15: 11.1% at Turkiye Finans; 12% at Kuveyt Turk) are only adequate for their risk profiles. Net non-performing loans amounted to a moderate 12% and 5% of Fitch core capital at Turkiye Finans and Kuveyt Turk, respectively, at end-1H15.
Diversified customer deposits are the main funding source for both banks. However, deposits have not kept pace with loan growth at Turkiye Finans and its loans/deposits ratio was a high 133% at end-1H15, stable versus end-2014. Kuveyt Turk's ratio was comfortable, at 101% at end-1H15. Non-deposit wholesale funding has increased at both banks, similar to the banking sector as a whole in Turkey. It represented 22% and 26%, respectively, of Turkiye Finans' and Kuveyt Turk's non-equity funding at end-1H15, and includes both short-term bank borrowings and long-term sukuk bonds. Turkiye Finans's strategy is to reduce foreign currency wholesale and deposit funding.
Liquidity at both banks is satisfactory, with foreign currency liquid assets at end-1H15 fully covering short-term foreign currency wholesale funding falling due within one year. Fitch considers refinancing risk to be manageable given the banks' ownership structures and quite diversified wholesale funding sources.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT
A change in the parent banks' ability and/or willingness to support their respective subsidiaries could affect the banks' IDRs, National Ratings and potentially also Support Ratings. Both banks' Long-term foreign currency IDRs are sensitive to changes in Turkey's Country Ceiling.
Should NCB, which has a Negative Outlook, be downgraded this will not automatically result in negative rating action on TFKB given the already wide notching (four notches) between NCB's and TFKB's own support-driven IDRs.
VIABILITY RATINGS
A sharp deterioration in asset quality or capitalisation could put downward pressure on the VRs. An upgrade is unlikely in the foreseeable future given the banks' small size and the challenging operating environment.
The rating actions are as follows:
Kuveyt Turk Katilim Bankasi A.S and Turkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi A.S
Long-term foreign currency IDRs affirmed at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
Long-term local currency IDRs affirmed at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable
Short-term foreign currency IDRs affirmed at 'F3'
Short-term local currency IDRs affirmed at 'F2'
Viability Ratings affirmed at 'bb-'
Support Ratings affirmed at '2'
National Long-term Ratings affirmed at 'AAA(tur)'; Outlook Stable
Turkiye Finans TF Varlik Kiralama A.S., Kuveyt Turk's KT Sukuk Varlik Kiralama A.S., KT
KT Kira Sertifikalari Varlik Kiralama A.S.:
Senior unsecured debt issues (sukuk): affirmed at 'BBB'
KT Sukuk Company Limited:
Subordinated debt: affirmed 'BBB-(EXP)
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