Fitch Affirms IHS Inc. at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Strength of Operating Profile: The ratings reflect IHS's strong business profile, long-standing client relationships and core competencies, which leverage deep industry expertise and integrated service delivery platforms to provide data, analytics and research. IHS focuses on six global, capital-intensive industries with highly connected supply chains: Energy & Natural Resources, Chemicals, Technology, Automotive, Aerospace & Defense, and Maritime.
High Barriers to Entry: Fitch Ratings believes IHS's business model creates high barriers to entry associated with its core businesses and that the capital needed to compete as well as the operational disruption to customers would make it challenging for competition to replace IHS. The company focuses on the various workflows within the industries it covers, making its data, analytics and research an important component of customers' workflows and input for decision making.
Recurring Revenue Stream: Recurring, subscription-based revenues accounted for 77% of IHS's consolidated revenues in 2014 and provides significant visibility, stability and predictability to the company's FCF generation. The company's subscription-based business model capitalizes on long-standing client relationships with nominal account churn.
Capital Allocation Strategy: IHS's capital allocation strategy will remain focused on investments in its core business and strategic acquisitions while maintaining a strong balance sheet. In the absence of acquisition, IHS will remain disciplined in accommodating shareholder returns within the context of the higher end of its stated target leverage of 2x to 3x. Fitch notes there is limited capacity for share repurchases beyond FCF and expects IHS to moderate shareholder returns to either maintain compliance with its target leverage or delever back to its target in the event of a leveraging acquisition.
FCF Supports Deleveraging: IHS's significant FCF generation affords the company with meaningful financial flexibility and deleveraging capacity. Through the LTM period ended Aug. 31, 2015, FCF was $453 million. Fitch expects EBITDA-to-FCF conversion to remain strong at around 65% over the ratings horizon, driven by the low capital intensity of the business.
Leverage Target: Management has stated a target leverage of 2x to 3x with temporary increases to accommodate sizable acquisitions. Management has demonstrated willingness and ability to de-lever. Following the R.L. Polk acquisition, Fitch-calculated leverage increased to 4.3x at FYE 2013 and has declined to 3.1x as of Aug. 31, 2015.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
--Low to Mid-single digit revenue growth with moderate annual margin expansion;
--Share buybacks ranging from $250 million to $400 million with minimal acquisitions;
--Fitch expects buybacks to be subdued with larger acquisitions in order to de-lever;
--FCF in excess of $450 million during the rating horizon.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Positive Rating Action: Positive rating actions would likely coincide with:
--IHS publically adopting a more conservative financial policy highlighted by an unadjusted gross leverage target of 2.5x or lower (under Fitch's calculation);
--Positive operating momentum coupled with growing diversity of its client base; and/or maintenance of FCF/gross debt above 15%.
Negative Rating Triggers:
--Material acquisitions that increase leverage over 4x without the expectation of deleveraging below 3x within 18 months would pressure the ratings.
--Shareholder-friendly actions that drive leverage over 3.5x and/or a weakening of IHS's operating profile as signalled by a persistent decline in the company's FCF/gross debt metric approaching 10%, deteriorating operating margins and revenue growth erosion also might trigger a downgrade.
LIQUIDITY
IHS's financial flexibility and liquidity position are solid considering its ability to generate consistent levels of FCF. During the LTM period ended August 2015, the company generated approximately $453 million of free cash flow. The company's liquidity position is further supported by available borrowing capacity under the company's $1.3 billion revolver. Commitments under the revolver are set to expire during Oct. 2019.
IHS's maturity schedule is manageable and Fitch believes that the company has sufficient financial flexibility through expected FCF generation, available borrowing capacity from the revolver, and capital market access to address near-term maturities. Near term scheduled maturities are minimal and consist primarily of scheduled amortization from the company's term loans.
FULL LIST OF RATING ACTIONS
Fitch affirms the following:
IHS, Inc.
--IDR at 'BBB';
--Senior unsecured notes at 'BBB'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
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