OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has published an exposure draft outlining the agency's proposed global methodology for analysing residual foreign exchange (FX) exposures for both new and existing covered bond ratings. The proposed treatment will form part of Fitch's Covered Bonds Rating Criteria and will only be applicable when FX exposure is considered a residual risk.

The agency has proposed two limits for open foreign currency exposure of 10%, which have been defined to give guidance on whether FX mismatches are a residual risk for the programme rating. Fitch believes that FX risk should not be a primary risk for covered bond ratings, because the risk associated with large FX exposures is not consistent with high, stable ratings given the uncertain magnitude of changes in FX rates. The published stresses will only be applied when FX exposure is considered a residual risk.

Fitch already applies FX stresses for exposures in covered bond programmes that are not fully hedged through scenarios determined at rating committees and communicated in Fitch publications. In order to enhance the consistency and transparency of FX stresses, Fitch proposes to split the FX stresses between four categories and three rating groups. The proposed stresses are in the same range but are not the same as the stresses used previously for individual programmes.

Fitch currently rates 13 covered bond programmes exposed to FX cover assets and covered bonds, which are not fully swapped or where the security is based in a country with a different currency than the loan. These are nine public sector and CRE programmes based in Germany, one public sector programme in Luxembourg, one mortgage programme in France and two mortgage programmes based in Poland.

There is one programme slightly above the 10% limit for which a three-notch downgrade would be expected to occur if the mismatches do not fall below the limits. Breakeven overcollateralisation (OC) levels for the ratings (mostly 'AAA') are likely to increase for seven programmes but no rating impact is expected if issuers plan to maintain OC in their programmes at levels higher than any updated breakeven OCs for the ratings. For each of these programmes, the level of OC that Fitch currently gives credit to, which is often the lowest level of OC of the last year, would provide sufficient protection considering the proposed stresses.

Fitch invites feedback from market participants on the proposed criteria. Comments should be sent to coveredbonds.feedback@fitchratings.com by 31 December 2015.

In accordance with regulatory requirements, at the end of this period Fitch will publish the results of the consultation. We will then publish an updated version of the Covered Bonds Rating Criteria.