OREANDA-NEWS. November 18, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed ProAssurance Corporation's (PRA) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-'. Fitch has also affirmed the Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) ratings of PRA's primary insurance operating companies (listed below) at 'A'. The Rating Outlook for all ratings is Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
The rating affirmation considers the solid capital position of PRA's operating subsidiaries, as well as their consistent profitability, low financial leverage, and strong reserve experience. In addition, PRA has a track record of prudent use of capital, claims management, and reserve processes. These characteristics are generally supportive of a higher rating per Fitch guidelines.

Offsetting these positives is the company's historical concentration of operations in the volatile medical professional liability (MPLI) line of business. Recent acquisitions, particularly of Eastern Insurance in 2014, have diversified premiums such that as of Sept. 30, 2015, PRA derived approximately 40% of premiums from non-MPLI business.

While there are potential benefits from a more diversified product mix, there is also uncertainty regarding the ultimate operating success of PRA's venture into different business lines. Successful integration of recent acquisitions with favorable underwriting performance across each major segment going forward would be a credit positive.

PRA reported a calendar year GAAP combined ratio of 89.9% for nine months ended Sept. 30, 2015, which was worse than the 85.1% posted for same period prior year. Calendar year combined ratios for the past several years have benefited from large favorable loss reserve development. While favorable development typically indicates reserve strength it can mask deterioration in current calendar year underwriting results.

On an accident year basis the company reported a 109.7% combined ratio thru Sept. 30, 2015, a modest improvement from 110.5% combined ratio for similar period prior year. Fitch believes that current loss ratio estimates incorporate a reasonable but conservative view for future claims reserves. PRA is likely to continue to report significant favorable reserve development going forward.

The MPLI market's underwriting results continue to outperform other major commercial lines segments on a calendar year basis. However, more recently, MPLI combined ratios have deteriorated, while other commercial lines posted better results due to better premium rates and below average catastrophe related losses.

MPLI follows a unique underwriting cycle to other commercial insurance lines. Industry premium volumes are shrinking due to fundamental market changes and price competition. Health care providers are moving from independent and smaller group practices towards employment with hospitals and large medical groups. This shift is changing purchase and coverage preferences for MPLI. Large groups are more likely to self-insure and use captive or alternative risk programs, reducing demand for primary MPLI coverage.

The MPLI market includes many monoline MPLI writers that experienced strong capital growth in the last hard market and have limited underwriting opportunities outside of MPLI. Efforts to deploy capital by MPLI specialists is dampening market pricing and will restrict any potential for improving market conditions going forward.

As of Sept. 30, 2015, PRA had financial leverage of 15% up from 10% at year-end 2014 due to borrowing \\$100 million under its revolving credit agreement. Similarly, earnings based interest coverage declined to 13 times (x) with the declining earnings and additional interest coverage compared to of 18 x at year-end 2014. PRA's IDR is based rating is based on PRA maintaining financial leverage below 15% and maintaining strong interest coverage and holding company liquidity.

Within Fitch's rating rationale are multiple rating triggers. If PRA were to materially deviate from any of these items, especially for an extended period, the ratings could be affected.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch believes that a ratings upgrade in the near term is unlikely, barring a change in Fitch's broad view of the risks inherent in the MPLI industry.

The following is a list of triggers that could lead to a downgrade of the debt rating and IDR:

--A sustained increase in financial leverage above 15%;
--A sustained reduction in earnings based interest coverage below 12x.

The following is a list of triggers that could lead to a downgrade of all ratings:

--An increase in financial leverage above 25% or decline in operating earnings-based coverage below 7x;
--Material adverse reserve development;
--An increase in the company's GAAP operating leverage of 1.0x or higher;
--A Prism capital model score below 'Strong' (currently 'Extremely Strong').

The following is a list of triggers that could lead to an upgrade:

--Continued successful integration of recent acquisitions noting that integration takes time commensurate with the duration of liabilities and the products position in the underwriting cycle.
--Moderating to improving trends in financial performance and financial leverage.

FULL LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

Fitch affirmed the following ratings with a Stable Outlook:

ProAssurance Corporation
--IDR at 'A-'.
--\\$250 million 5.3% senior unsecured debt due 2023 'BBB+'.

Fitch has affirmed the IFS rating of the following companies at 'A' with a Stable Outlook:

--Allied Eastern Indemnity Company;
--Eastern Alliance Insurance Company;
--Eastern Advantage Assurance Company;
--Medmarc Casualty Insurance Company;
--Noetic Specialty Insurance Company;
--PACO Assurance Company, Inc.
--Podiatry Insurance Company of America;
--ProAssurance Casualty Company;
--ProAssurance Indemnity Company, Inc.;
--ProAssurance Specialty Insurance Company.