Fitch Rates Long Island Power Auth $266MM Series 2015B/C Elec Sys Gen Rev Bonds 'A-'; Outlook Stable
--\\$117 million, series 2015B, fixed rate;
--\\$149 million, series 2015C, LIBOR floating-rate tender notes (FRNs).
Proceeds from the 2015B and C bonds will, respectively, fund capital improvements and refund certain variable-rate bonds (subordinate lien revenue bonds, series 1A and 2B) with FRNs; and pay costs of issuance.
Fitch also affirms the \\$4.3 billion outstanding in parity senior lien electric system general revenue bonds at 'A-'.
The Rating Outlook is revised to Stable from Negative.
LIPA's debt rating takes into account \\$2.9 billion in outstanding securitization bonds (rated 'AAAsf'/Stable Outlook), issued by the Utility Debt Securitization Authority (UDSA) in December 2013 and October 2015, to economically refund a portion of LIPA's existing debt. Revenues collected by LIPA to pay debt service on the securitization bonds (a non-bypassable consumption-based surcharge) are not subject to the lien of the general or subordinated LIPA resolutions. The rating further incorporates \\$2.4 billion in outstanding capital lease obligations and \\$449 million in subordinated debt (not rated by Fitch) as of Sept. 30, 2015.
SECURITY
The electric system general revenue bonds are senior lien obligations of LIPA secured by the net revenues of the electric system, after payment of operating and maintenance expenses and prior to payment of subordinate lien obligations.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
SOLID UTILITY FUNDAMENTALS: LIPA is one of the largest municipal electric distribution systems in the nation, serving 1.1 million retail customers. LIPA maintains sound utility fundamentals including a flexible, stable power supply mix, an affluent diversified customer base, an approved rate mechanism to stabilize sizeable fuel and purchased power related cash flow, and solid electric service reliability.
CONSTRUCTIVE REGULATORY TREATMENT: The Outlook revision to Stable from Negative reflects constructive treatment by the Department of Public Service (DPS), a staff arm of the New York Public Service Commission, in its initial three-year rate review of LIPA. While the rate proceeding this year resulted in a 26% reduction in LIPA's final revenue request, the DPS's recommendations provide for sound long-term financial goals and policies, sufficient to stabilize LIPA's rating at the 'A-' level.
OPERATING UNDER TRANSFORMATIVE LEGISLATION: The LIPA Reform Act enacted in July 2013 broadened the operating responsibilities of the T&D system-operator (PSEG-Long Island) and expanded the state regulatory oversight of LIPA. Fitch views many of the legislated provisions as supportive of credit quality, albeit with added regulatory rate and financial oversight.
RATE PRESSURES PERSIST: Despite charges that have become regionally more competitive over time and the added scrutiny of the DPS, political and consumer rate pressures persist as average residential rates are about 19.6 cents/kilowatt hour (kWh).
HIGH LEVERAGE: LIPA remains considerably levered with \\$10.6 billion of debt at FYE2014 (including capital lease and securitization obligation), and debt per retail customer of \\$9,539, compared to the peer utility median of \\$3,412. Although Fitch recognizes the benefits of the separately secured securitization debt, the repayment profile remains an obligation of the ratepayer. Positively, LIPA's three-year rate plan aims to reduce debt financing of future capital expenditures to 60%-65%, which should moderate future borrowings.
SOUND LIQUIDITY: LIPA's liquidity is solid at 73 days operating cash and 153 days including available short-term notes and an external bank facility. Federal reimbursement of storm costs progressed as expected and did not materially compromise LIPA's liquidity. The final tally for recoverable costs related to Superstorm Sandy (October 2012) totaled \\$704 million, down from initial estimates of more than \\$800 million. The federal assistance grants covered 90% of the storm costs, net of insurance proceeds.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
IMPROVED OPERATING STABILITY: Evidence of improved operating stability and financial performance at the Long Island Power Authority that is sufficient to offset persistent political and consumer-driven rate pressures could result in consideration of a positive Outlook revision or rating action.
CREDIT PROFILE
LIPA owns one of the largest municipal electric distribution systems in the U.S., serving a population of about 3 million located throughout Nassau and Suffolk counties, and the Rockaways section of New York City. LIPA took over as the retail power supplier for its service area on May 28, 1998 by acquiring the Long Island Lighting Company (LILCO) as its wholly owned subsidiary, through a merger. Since the acquisition, the LILCO subsidiary does business under the name of LIPA.
The service area economy continues to exhibit well above-average wealth and income levels. Unemployment in Nassau and Suffolk Counties (general obligations debt rated 'A'/Stable Outlook) is below that of the state and nation. LIPA's customer base is well diversified and desirable as residential users account for 54% of 2014 revenues.
Operations and management services related to the LIPA transmission and distribution system, which had been provided by a subsidiary of National Grid plc, shifted to PSEG-LI, a subsidiary of Public Service Enterprise Group ([PSEG] Issuer Default Rating 'BBB+'/Stable Outlook) as of Jan. 1, 2014, for a 12-year term, pursuant to the operating services agreement (OSA). PSEG is paid a management fee and can earn performance incentives.
Beginning Jan. 1, 2015, the fuel management services which had been provided by Con Edison Energy, Inc., also shifted to an affiliate of PSEG - PSEG Energy Resources and Trade, LLC. The power supply and fuel management services are also provided pursuant to the OSA, which expires Dec. 31, 2025.
The power supply agreement remains with National Grid, plc, to provide capacity and energy from its oil and gas-fired generating units on Long Island. This agreement is in place through May 2028.
NEW ISSUE DETAILS
LIPA's series 2015B bonds will fund a portion of ongoing capital expenditures related to the transmission and distribution system. The 2015C bonds will refund subordinate lien variable-rate bonds (series 1A and 2B), which have an expiring bank credit facility in December 2015.
The 2015C bonds are floating-rate securities with a three-year initial term ('soft put'). The bonds are multi-modal and can be remarketed to any other standard mode on any date the FRNs are callable. The bonds are callable at par six months before the mandatory put date. The final maturity of the 2015C bonds is in line with debt being refunded, or 18 years.
The 2015C bonds have a risk profile similar to publicly offered variable rate demand bonds (VRDBs) supported with a letter of credit, but without the bank credit facility. In a failed remarketing of the bonds, the FRN rate will convert on the first 90 days to the adjusted LIBOR rate plus 2.50%, from 91 to 180 days the greater of the adjusted LIBOR rate plus 4.50% or 7.5%; and thereafter at the lesser of the maximum rate per annum permitted by law or 10%. The FRNs would remain continuously callable until remarketed. Unlike VRDBs amortization of the 2015C bonds would not be accelerated due to a failed remarketing (absent the occurrence of an event of default).
RESTRUCTURING LEGISLATION
Following Superstorm Sandy and its aftermath, LIPA faced staunch criticism from customers, local politicians and the governor's office regarding the utility's response, and timeliness in restoring power. The intense criticism opened the way for the passage of LIPA restructuring legislation in July 2013. The LIPA Reform Act was intended to (i) restructure the relationship between LIPA and the system service provider, such that PSEGLI would assume broader control of all utility operations, (ii) establish a new office of the Department of Public Service (DPS) with responsibility to oversee and make recommendations regarding LIPA's rates and operations, (iii) and authorize the sale of securitized bonds that would be used to refinance a portion of LIPA's outstanding debt and lower debt service costs.
CONSTRUCTIVE DPS RATE REVIEW PROCESS
Fitch views many of the LIPA restructuring initiatives positively, particularly those designed to lower or moderate LIPA's operating costs. However, the broader regulatory oversight role of the DPS is of some concern, as most utilities in the public power sector are self-regulated. The DPS role is intended to be advisory. Nonetheless, it adds a lengthier rate review process (approximately 9-12 months) and uncertainty as to the DPS's assessment of LIPA charges and revenues. Additionally, the nature of the department's advice, and how obligated the authority's board will feel to follow the DPS's recommendations, is an uncertainty. The authority's Board of Trustees still retain final rate-setting power.
The DPS has concluded its first rate review process with LIPA and the results appear constructive. As the authority's Board did not oppose the DPS rate plan recommendations, they are scheduled to formally approve the rate plan and LIPA's 2016 budget at their upcoming Dec. 16 meeting. The DPS's revenue recommendation reduced LIPA's final three-year revenue request by 26.4%, from \\$387.2 million, down to \\$325.4 million, and the aggregate rate increase to 5% over three years, compared to LIPA's original request of 6%. Despite the reduced revenue requirement and base rate increase, the DPS provided for annual "staged updates" or base rate adjustments for large expense items, including debt service, property taxes, and changes to collective bargaining agreements (2017 and 2108), which should facilitate the timely cost recovery for these variable charges.
The DPS further recommended the adoption of the public power model of targeting cash flow adequate to attain a desired debt service coverage level. The DPS's recommended debt service coverage targets, including fixed charges (i.e. portion of capital lease payments) but excluding securitization debt service, of 1.20x, 1.30x, 1.40x and 1.45x for the years 2016-2019, respectively. Including securitization bond debt service, coverage ratios would be 1.15x, 1.20x and 1.25x, respectively, through 2018.
The DPS also supported LIPA's request to reduce future debt financing of capital expenditures to 60%-65%, which is in-line with the industry standards. These new financial policies should support metrics consistent with 'A-'rated peers.
COMPLETED SANDY STORM COST RECOVERY
The recovery of Superstorm Sandy costs primarily from the Federal Energy Management Agency (FEMA) have progressed as expected and have been fully recovered, without materially compromising LIPA's liquidity. LIPA's final tally of Superstorm Sandy costs is \\$704 million, down from initial estimates of over \\$800 million. The FEMA grants covered 90% of total storm restoration costs (less insurance proceeds); and provided an additional \\$730 million for storm hardening. The storm hardening grants will be received over the next three years as the work is completed.
LEVERAGE REMAINS HIGH BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
LIPA's 2016-2018 capital plan totals a sizeable \\$1.8 billion. The higher level of investment in the electric system reflects LIPA's focus on strengthening system resiliency, reliability and storm hardiness, in addition to needed IT upgrades. Of this amount, roughly 28.4% or \\$519 million will be funded via FEMA grants to be received over the next three years as storm hardening projects progress. The rest of the capital plan will be financed via a combination of internal cash generation (17.3%) and debt funding (54.3%).
Total debt stood at \\$10.6 billion at fiscal year-end 2014, including capital lease obligations and securitization debt. Consolidated leverage remained relatively high, as total debt-to-funds available for debt service totaled 9.3x, compared to the rating category median of 8.7x. Debt per retail customer was also elevated at \\$9,539 for 2014, as compared to their peers at \\$3,412.
Looking forward, debt outstanding should remain about the same or decline modestly by 2018, assuming the authority issues \\$1 billion in new money to fund capital expenditures thru 2018, offset by the debt and capital lease scheduled principal payments of about the same amount. While debt per customer will not improve much by 2018, borrowing needs should moderate with the reduced use (54%) of debt financing for capex through the rate plan period.
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