OREANDA-NEWS. November 10, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited (BAY) and TMB Bank Public Company Limited (TMB). Fitch has also affirmed the National Long-Term Ratings of BAY, TMB, Thanachart Bank Public Company Limited (TBANK) and Thanachart Capital Public Company Limited (TCAP).

A full list of rating actions is included at the end of this commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT
BAY's IDRs, National Ratings and senior debt ratings reflect Fitch's view that it is a strategically important subsidiary of the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. (BTMU; A/Stable), which owns 76.9% of BAY. BTMU integrated its Bangkok branch into BAY in January 2015, and is positioning the Thai bank as its regional platform in the Greater Mekong region. BAY's Stable Outlook reflects the outlook of the parent.

TMB's IDRs, National Ratings and senior debt ratings are driven by the standalone strengths demonstrated by its Viability Rating (VR).

TBANK's National Ratings reflect its moderate domestic franchise as the sixth largest commercial bank in Thailand, and its leading market position in auto hire purchase. TBANK's overall credit profile remains satisfactory despite the weak domestic operating conditions, and is in line with Fitch's earlier expectations as well as with similarly rated regional peers. TBANK also benefits from ordinary support from its 49% shareholder the Bank of Nova Scotia (AA-/Stable), which includes management and operational support as well as an uncommitted credit facility. The Stable Outlook reflects sufficient loss absorption buffers to allow the bank to cope with any anticipated deterioration in the operating environment with no ratings impact.

TCAP's National Ratings are notched down from its core operating subsidiary TBANK, to reflect the structural subordination of the holding company, as well as the presence of large minority interests. Its Stable Outlook is in line with that of TBANK.

VIABILITY RATINGS
BAY's VR reflects its sound franchise as the fifth largest commercial bank in Thailand, proven earnings track record and acceptable capital levels. Its positioning as a subsidiary of BTMU has led to a more diversified business model (particularly strengthening its profile among large corporate clients), and leads to ongoing funding support particularly in foreign currencies.

TMB's VR reflects its improved financial performance (particularly in asset quality and profitability), and sound capital and liquidity positions. TMB is the seventh largest commercial bank in Thailand, with a market share of around 5% in loans and deposits. The weak business environment will continue to pose challenges to TMB's asset quality, particularly in the retail and SME segments.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
BAY's Support Rating is based on institutional support factors, and reflects Fitch's view that there is an extremely high probability of extraordinary support from its parent BTMU.

TMB's Support Rating and Support Rating Floor are based on sovereign support factors. Fitch believes that TMB is of some systemic importance to the financial sector, with a moderate probability of state support in case of need, although such probability is likely to be lower compared with the top-four largest commercial banks in Thailand.

SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES
BAY's legacy (Basel II) subordinated debt is rated at 'AA+(tha)', one notch below its National Long-Term Rating of 'AAA(tha)', to take into account their subordination in the capital structure.

TMB's Basel III Tier 2 notes are rated one notch below its National Long-Term Rating, to reflect loss-severity risk arising from their subordinated status. Key terms of the notes include a partial rather than mandatory full write-down feature, and there is no going-concern loss absorption features. Its legacy subordinated debts (Basel II) are also rated one notch below the National Long-Term Rating to reflect their subordinated status and a lack of loss absorption features.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS AND SENIOR DEBT
BAY's IDRs, National and senior debt ratings are sensitive to a change in Fitch's assumptions about the ability or propensity of BTMU to support BAY. No upside is possible to the IDR (which is at Thailand's Country Ceiling) or the National Ratings (which are already at the highest end on the Thai National scale). There could be downside to the ratings if BTMU is downgraded, or if the strategic importance of BAY to BTMU declines (for example, in case of a large reduction in shareholding or a reduction in operational linkages).

TMB IDRs, National and senior debt ratings would be sensitive to any changes in its VR.

TBANK's National Ratings would face pressure if there was a significant reversal of recent improvements in key financial metrics such as performance, asset quality and capitalisation. Any indications of reduced ordinary support from Bank of Nova Scotia to TBANK could also have a negative ratings impact. Sustained improvement in the credit profile and a material improvement in the bank's domestic franchise for corporate and SMEs loans and retail deposits may result in a ratings upgrade.

Any change in TBANK's National Ratings would likely have a corresponding impact on TCAP.

VIABILITY RATINGS
BAY's VR could face downside pressure if there was a material and sustained decline in asset quality buffers and core capitalisation. Meanwhile, there could be upside to the VR if integration with BTMU leads to significantly improved underlying performance, franchise, and liquidity.

TMB's VR could face downward pressure if the bank's key credit profile measurements in asset quality and leverage deteriorate sharply. There could be an upgrade in the VR if the bank can show that recent improvements in reserve coverage, liquidity and capital can be extended in a sustainable manner.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR
BAY's Support Rating could be impacted by any decline in BTMU's propensity to support BAY. For example, this may be indicated by a large reduction in shareholding, or a reversal of recent integration measures. However, Fitch believes that these are unlikely to occur in the short term. BAY's Support Rating could also be affected by any downward shift in BTMU's LT IDR.

Any very significant change to the market share of TMB could have an impact on the SR and SRF of the bank, although this would be unlikely in the short term.

SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES
BAY and TMB's subordinated debt ratings are broadly sensitive to the same considerations that might affect their National Long-Term Ratings.

The rating actions are as follows:

BAY
Long-Term IDR affirmed at 'A-'; Outlook Stable
Short-Term IDR affirmed at 'F2'
Viability Rating affirmed at 'bbb'
Support Rating affirmed at '1'
National Long-Term Rating affirmed at 'AAA(tha)'; Outlook Stable
National Short-Term Rating affirmed at 'F1+(tha)'
National long-term senior unsecured debt affirmed at 'AAA(tha)'
National short-term senior unsecured debt affirmed at 'F1+(tha)'
Legacy Basel II subordinated debt affirmed at 'AA+(tha)'

TMB
Long-Term IDR affirmed at 'BBB-'; Outlook Stable
Short-Term IDR affirmed at 'F3'
Viability Rating affirmed at 'bbb-'
Support Rating affirmed at '3'
Support Rating Floor affirmed at 'BB+'
National Long-Term Rating affirmed at 'A+(tha)'; Outlook Stable
National Short-Term Rating affirmed at 'F1(tha)';
USD3.0bn senior unsecured medium-term note programme affirmed at 'BBB-'
Long-Term Foreign-Currency senior unsecured debt affirmed at 'BBB-'
Basel III Tier 2 subordinated debt rating affirmed at 'A(tha)'
Legacy Basel II subordinated debt rating affirmed at 'A(tha)'

TBANK
National Long-Term Rating affirmed at 'A+(tha)'; Outlook Stable
National Short-Term Rating affirmed at 'F1+(tha)'

TCAP
National Long-Term Rating affirmed at 'A(tha)' ; Outlook Stable
National Short-Term Rating affirmed at 'F1(tha)'

Contact:
Ambreesh Srivastava (International Ratings for BAY and TMB)
Senior Director
+65 6796 7218
Fitch Ratings Singapore Pte Ltd
6 Temasek Boulevard
#35-05 Suntec Tower Four
Singapore 038986

Patchara Sarayudh (TBANK and TCAP)
Director
+662 108 0152

Parson Singha (National Ratings for BAY)
Senior Director
+662 108 0151

Trin Siriwutiset (National Ratings for TMB)
Associate Director
+662 108 0154

Secondary Analyst
Parson Singha (International Ratings for BAY, National Ratings for TMB)
Senior Director
+662 108 0151

Trin Siriwutiset (International Ratings for TMB)
Associate Director
+662 108 0154

Jindarat Laotaveerungsawat (TBANK and TCAP, National Ratings for BAY)
Associate Director
+662 108 0153

Committee Chairperson
Mark Young
Managing Director
+65 6796 7229

Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234, Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com.

Note to Editors: Fitch's National ratings provide a relative measure of creditworthiness for rated entities in countries with relatively low international sovereign ratings and where there is demand for such ratings. The best risk within a country is rated 'AAA' and other credits are rated only relative to this risk. National ratings are designed for use mainly by local investors in local markets and are signified by the addition of an identifier for the country concerned, such as 'AAA(tha)' for National ratings in Thailand. Specific letter grades are not therefore internationally comparable.