OREANDA-NEWS. Global bright stock prices are forecast to remain unusually firm over the coming months, supported by tightening structural supply of the key lubricant feedstock.

Outright bright stock prices are expected to ease through to the end of the year on the back of a seasonal slowdown in demand, especially in Asia-Pacific markets like China, according to the latest monthly short-term price forecast in Argus Base Oils Outlook. But the size of the price drop is expected to be small because of the product's already unusually strong premium relative to Group I heavy-neutral base oils and diesel.

Bright stock is a heavy-viscosity base oil produced by Group I base oil plants. The product is used in many major lubricant applications, such as the production of engine oils, gear oils and marine oils. While newer Group II and Group III base oil plants produce higher quality base oils than Group I plants, they do not produce bright stock.

The limited size of bright stock's outright price drop is to leave its premium over Group I SN 500 base oil at more than $200/t in Europe, more than $300/t in US and above $350/t in Asia-Pacific by early next year, the forecast shows. The premium has typically been around $120/t in Europe and US in recent years, as well as $140/t in Asia-Pacific.

Bright stock values relative to diesel are also forecast to hold close $500/t in most markets during the first half of next year, the forecast shows. Prior to this year the premium had averaged less than $300/t in Asia-Pacific in recent years, less than $210/t in Europe and less than $320/t in the US.

The relative price strength of bright stock coincides with the imminent closure of several Group I base oil plants in Netherlands in the coming months. These will follow the closure of Group I base oil plants in France, South Africa and Taiwan during the past 18 months. The volume of such closed bright stock production capacity will far outweigh the increase in capacity in some existing and expanded plants. The price strength of bright stock is already reflecting this growing shortfall.

The strength of bright stock prices is also set to help to bolster outright Group I base oil values relative to diesel and feedstock prices by providing a strong counterbalance to weak light-grade base oil prices.