OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings says that BNP Paribas' (BNPP; A+/Stable/a+) 3Q15 results highlight the importance of its non-domestic retail banking businesses in supporting earnings growth. The results also showed the resilient performance of BNPP's capital market activities despite challenging market conditions in 3Q15.

BNPP reported EUR2.6bn pre-tax profit for 3Q15, adjusted for a EUR37m gain from changes in the fair value of own debt. Adjusted pre-tax profit was stable yoy and down 17% qoq, reflecting seasonally lower earnings but also continued weak revenue growth in some of BNPP's core retail banking markets. BNPP generated a 9.6% annualised return on equity in 9M15 (8.5% in 3Q15) excluding the adjustment item above and restructuring costs of EUR507m, slightly below its 2016 10% target.

Since we do not expect loan impairment charges (LICs) to abate significantly in the near term, we believe that delivering profitability targets through the cycle will notably remain dependent on continued profitability improvement in BNPP's international financial service businesses to offset pressure on markets where revenue generation will remain sluggish, notably France and Italy. Cost control will also be key, as higher compliance and regulatory expenses are weighing on the bank's cost base. BNPP's cost-income ratio was 67% in 9M15, slightly down yoy but above its 63% 2016 target.

BNPP reported a marginal 1% yoy increase in retail banking revenue in its home markets (France, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg and Germany), which together generated one-third of the group's 3Q15 pre-tax profit excluding the corporate centre. We believe material improvement in the division's profitability will continue to rely on the bank's specialised businesses and Belgian retail banking operations until loan demand in France picks up properly to offset current net interest margin compression and LICs abate more significantly in Italy. Revenue declined 3% yoy and 4% yoy in France and Italy, respectively, in 3Q15, although the Italian loan book stabilised at end-3Q15 after several quarters of contraction. While LICs in Italy have decreased from the 1H14 peak (159bp of customer loans in 3Q15 on an annualised basis versus 185bp in 1H14), they still absorbed most of the pre-impairment profit.

BNPP's pre-tax profit for its Belgian retail banking and specialised businesses rose materially in 3Q15 (up 25% yoy and 21% yoy respectively). BNPP benefited from continued higher lending volumes in Belgium, where the net interest margin held up well. LICs were immaterial in 3Q15 although we expect this to normalise (5bp of customer loans in 9M15 versus 15bp in 2014). BNPP reported continued revenue growth in all its specialised business, with an 8% combined rise yoy in 3Q15 as loan volumes increased in leasing and fleet financing. Costs remained well under control in both BNPP's Belgian and specialised services operations.

BNPP's international financial services business, which includes its consumer finance, non-home retail banking, insurance and wealth management businesses, generated almost 45% of the group's pre-tax income (excluding corporate centre) in 3Q15. The division was the main driver of the group's yoy revenue increase in 3Q15, with all businesses contributing to a 5% combined rise at constant scope and exchange rate. In wealth and asset management, BNPP saw improving net new money inflows in 9M15 (combined EUR15bn), although we believe it will be challenging to reach its targets of EUR70bn in wealth management and EUR40bn in asset management by end-2016. Continued revenue growth in BNPP's US retail banking business (up 4% yoy in 3Q15) was largely driven by corporate and consumer loan growth, but was offset by higher regulatory and investment costs.

Performance in BNPP's corporate and institutional banking business, which includes its global markets, securities and corporate banking activities, declined after a solid 1H15, as 3Q15 was seasonally weaker. Nonetheless, BNPP posted resilient performance in fixed income and equity and prime service activities compared with 3Q14, despite a challenging market environment. Revenue remained flat and rose 21% yoy respectively in 3Q15, which contrasted with revenue contraction for most of BNPP's global trading and universal bank (GTUB) peers. The equity and prime services businesses particularly benefited from sustained client volumes due to increased market volatility. Performance was weaker in the rates and foreign exchange businesses, offset by good volumes in credit trading and sales.

In corporate banking, BNPP's revenue declined 3% yoy, notably because the bank has reduced part of its exposure to the energy and commodities sector since 3Q14. The bank continued to use its balance sheet more intensively, with outstanding loans rising 13% yoy to EUR125bn at end-3Q15. Pre-tax income from corporate banking declined by a significant 44% as LICs, which can be very volatile in this business, normalised at 17bp of loans on an annualised basis in 3Q15 compared with provision reversals a year earlier (-25bp). 9M15 operating expenses, up 3.6% yoy at constant scope and exchange rate, were affected by higher compliance and regulatory costs, particularly relating to the requirement for BNPP to set up an intermediate holding company for its US operations by end-2Q16.

Capitalisation remains adequate, but is weaker than some of BNPP's similarly rated and most of its GTUB peers. BNPP's Basel III leverage ratio was 3.8% at end-3Q15, up 10bp qoq. While the ratio includes additional Tier 1 instruments that are not Basel III compliant (equivalent to around 40bp), we expect BNPP to continue issuing AT1 when legacy instruments are called, which over time should lead to improvements in its leverage ratio.

Given BNPP's healthy earnings generation, we also expect the bank to be able to maintain adequate common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio despite a likely upward momentum in RWA as regulators re-assess the risk weights associated with several exposures and activities. However, failure to maintain capitalisation in line with similarly rated peers or a structural deterioration of operating profitability would place the ratings under pressure. BNPP's Basel III fully-applied CET1 ratio rose 10bp in the quarter to 10.7% at end-3Q15.