Fitch: New Performance Targets Cloud Barclays' Satisfactory 3Q Core Performance
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings says that Barclays plc (A/Stable/a) reported satisfactory performance in its core business during 3Q15, with the return on average allocated equity of 9.5% in line with 3Q14, albeit down on 2Q15 (11%). However, the bank's earnings continue to be weighed down by its non-core businesses and conduct and litigation costs, resulting in a statutory RoE of just 3.1% in 3Q15 and 5% in 9M15.The group took the opportunity of its 3Q results call to announce lower profitability targets to reflect the higher costs associated with implementing structural reform and the accelerated run-down of Barclays Non Core (BNC).
Costs continue to be the focus although the group has had to revise upward its 2016 core cost target to GBP14.9bn from below GBP14.5bn, to incorporate costs associated with implementing structural reform (ring fencing and US intermediate holding company). In the UK, this will involve creating a new bank into which it will transfer its UK domestic retail and other businesses, while international subsidiaries and some UK businesses will remain within or underneath Barclays Bank plc. The group is also required to set up an IHC for its US businesses, including US Cards. In relation to this, Barclays expects to incur costs of GBP1.0bn; GBP0.1bn have been incurred in 2015 and further GBP0.4bn and GBP0.5bn are expected in 2016 and 2017-18 respectively. Over time, Barclays targets a cost-income ratio in the mid-50s, which could be ambitious, given the YTD 64% (core bank) and 71% (statutory).
Barclays also reduced its core RoE target to 11% from 12%, largely reflecting the impact of the increased UK corporate tax rate and the structural reform costs. The group replaced the previous non-core RoE drag target of below 3% with a guidance of cost-run rate of GBP125m per quarter commencing from 4Q16, which is at about half the amount incurred in 3Q15.
All of Barclays' core divisions achieved a satisfactory underlying performance in 3Q15. However, overall group quarterly profit before tax (PBT) decreased 7% yoy after adjusting for own credit and a one-off gain on Lehman acquisition assets in 2014. The group also incurred further provisions for UK customer redress, RMBS related civil lawsuits and other benchmark legacy litigation (GBP560m for the quarter), and a GBP201m loss on the disposal of the Portuguese retail business, which is expected to finalise in 1Q16. We expect earnings in 4Q to be seasonally weaker and impacted by the UK bank levy, a so-far slow trading environment and costs associated with business disposals. However, the performance of the group's retail, corporate banking and card businesses should remain strong throughout 2015.
The investment bank (IB) performed adequately, with PBT seasonally lower, but up 12% yoy, on the back of revenue growth in banking, driven by advisory, debt underwriting and lending. Equities trading revenue improved compared with a weak 3Q14, which was affected by dark pool allegations. Macro trading benefited from increased market volatility, while credit suffered in the securitised products and distressed credit markets, so that overall FICC net revenues decreased 1.6% yoy. The division's RWAs grew moderately in the last quarter to GBP120.5bn, which is around the stated target.
PCB's quarterly profit before tax increased by 8%, as income lost from the disposal of the US Wealth business and mortgage margin pressure was more than offset by reduced loan impairment charges in an improved operating environment, and savings from strategic cost-cutting programmes. Customer loan growth was modest over the quarter to GBP220.8bn (up 1.5%), while RWAs also increased to GBP122.2bn (up 1.3%).
Barclaycard's PBT increased by 40% driven by business growth in US Cards, which now generates more than one-third of total income, and the appreciation of the US dollar. Net interest income increased by 15%, while fee and commission income suffered somewhat from the interchange fee regulation. The division's loans increased moderately over the quarter to GBP38.2bn (up 3.5%), while deposits increased to GBP8.3bn (up 7.8%). Impairment charges were broadly flat and Barclays expects this to continue in 4Q.
Africa Banking PBT decreased on the back of the rand depreciating against sterling, but disregarding the currency effect, improved slightly as the group increased revenues in retail and corporate banking.
BNC generated a loss of GBP337m, due to lost income in discarded businesses and the run-down of the division's securities, loans and derivatives. The division's RWA decreased further towards the stated guidance of GBP20bn in 2017, and now stand at GBP55bn. Further reductions are expected once the group completes the sale of the Portuguese business.
Capitalisation remains sound and within the range of its global peers. Barclays maintained its CET1 ratio at 11.1%, as internal capital generation matched RWA growth (to GBP382bn), and improved its leverage ratio by 10bp following a GBP1bn AT1 issuance. We expect Barclays to maintain a broadly stable CET1 ratio in 2015 and progress towards the end-state target of over 12% (currently defined as 150bp above the regulatory minimum requirement).
Barclays' liquidity and funding remain sound. At end-3Q15 its regulatory liquidity coverage ratio stood at 118% and its loans-to-deposits ratio at around 98% across the group and 88% in the retail businesses (Barclaycard, PCB, Africa banking). The group's liquidity pool amounted to GBP142bn, sufficient to cover 2.4 times the wholesale debt due within one year.
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