OREANDA-NEWS. November 03, 2015. Fitch Ratings has published the latest edition of its 'Russian Banks Datawatch', a monthly publication of spreadsheets with key data from Russian banks' statutory accounts.

The issue includes:
- Balance sheet numbers as of 1 October 2015, as well as changes during September 2015 and since 1 January 2015
- Profit and loss statements for 9M15 and 2014 with associated ratios
- Charts illustrating balance sheet changes in 9M15 for the main state-related, privately-owned, foreign-owned and retail banks
- Special report on the main changes to the figures and trends in the Russian banking system in 9M15 and 3Q15

Fitch notes the following key developments in September 2015:
Sector corporate loans dropped by RUB177bn (-0.5%) in nominal terms or by RUB127bn (-0.4%) adjusting for negligible rouble appreciation against the US dollar. The biggest decreases occurred at Bank of Moscow (RUB102bn or -10%) and FC Otkritie (RUB105bn, -5%, of which RUB61bn was accounted for by a drop in the FX reverse repo book), while notable increases were at Russian Agricultural Bank (RUB58bn, 4%), ROST (RUB39bn, 24%; as it is under a rehabilitation regime and therefore not subject to minimum capital ratios, it has been increasingly used by B&N group to book exposures) and Rosbank (RUB16bn, 7%).

Retail lending growth was around zero. Among specialist retail banks, only Rencredit and Tinkoff grew modestly by less than 0.5%. Russian Standard and OTP were roughly stable, while Home Credit, Orient Express and Svyaznoy deleveraged by 1-4%.

Customer funding (excluding that from government entities) nominally increased by RUB565bn (1.2%) or by RUB633bn (1.4%) if adjusted for moderate RUB appreciation. The latter figure comprised inflows of both corporate and retail funding of, respectively, RUB520bn (2%) and RUB113bn (0.5%). The largest corporate funding inflows were in Sberbank (RUB411bn, 6%), Credit Bank of Moscow (RUB200bn, 64%; this was driven by lumpy short-term deposits from a large corporate) and Rosbank (RUB48bn, 19%). At the same time, considerable outflows were in Gazprombank (RUB156bn, -5%) and FC Otkritie (RUB84bn, -10%). Retail deposits grew predominantly in state banks (RUB129bn, 1%).

State funding decreased by RUB431bn net of exchange rate movements. This included repayments of RUB762bn (of this about one-third was FX repo) to the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and RUB43bn to other government entities, partially offset by borrowings of RUB345bn from the Ministry of Finance and RUB29bn from regional and federal budgets. The outstanding volume of FX funding from the CBR decreased to USD26bn from USD31bn, mainly due to a USD3.5bn repayment by VTB.

The sector reported a RUB32bn net profit in September, but it would have been around zero excluding Sberbank's profit. The largest loss of RUB21.5bn was reported by B&N group, including RUB3bn (-9.4% of end-August equity) in B&N itself, RUB15bn in the rescued ROST (equity was already negative) and RUB3bn (-7.1%) in MDM, which was recently acquired by B&N's shareholders. Considerable impairment-driven losses were also recognised by FC Otkritie (RUB7bn, -5.1%) and Uralsib (RUB1bn, -2.9%). Among retail banks, Russian Standard and Tinkoff reported moderate profits of RUB0.8bn (2.3% of end-August equity) and RUB0.3bn (1.7%), respectively. Orient Express was slightly above break-even, while Home Credit, OTP and Rencredit were moderately loss-making (0.4-2%).

The average total capital (N1 -15.6%, current required minimum of 10% set to be reduced to 8% at end-2015) and core Tier 1 (N1.1 - 10.9%, current required minimum of 5% set to be reduced to 4.5% at end-2015) ratios of the sampled banks (excluding those rescued or not reporting capital ratios) increased by 32bps and 19bps, respectively. Bank Zenit's and Bank Saint Petersburg's total capital ratios increased the most by3.6pts and 2.7pts, respectively, due to Tier 2 capital contributions of RUB9.4bn and RUB14.6bn, through OFZ provided by the Deposit Insurance Agency as part of the sector support programme. CBR FX forbearance has been extended again to year-end (initially granted to end-1H15 and was rolled to end-3Q15), but the favourable USD/RUB exchange rate was increased to 55 from 45 (compared with the current market rate of around 65), so we expect banks utilising the forbearance to report reductions in capital ratios, other things being equal, of 40-60bps in October.

We estimate that current capital buffers (excluding future potential profits) of 54 of the sampled banks (excluding the already failed and bailed-out ones) were sufficient to absorb potential loan losses equal to less than 5% of loans, and 12 could absorb less than 1%. The latter were Bank of Moscow, Leto Bank, Globexbank, Krayinvest, MDM, Kedr, Zenit, Rencredit, UBRIR, Novikom, Moscow Industrial and Rosinterbank.