Fitch to Rate Porsche Innovative Lease Owner Trust 2015-2; Issues Presale
--$89,000,000 class A-1 notes 'F1+sf';
--$170,000,000 class A-2 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$170,000,000 class A-3 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--$76,300,000 class A-4 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Strong Collateral Quality: 2015-2 has a strong weighted average (WA) FICO of 789, consistent with recent securitized pools. The pool primarily comprises of 36-month lease terms (66%), is 4.9 months seasoned and has a well-diversified residual value (RV) maturity schedule.
Shifting Portfolio Composition: 2015-2 includes leases on Bentley and Lamborghini vehicles, which comprise 18% of the pool, up from 14% in 2015-1. Limited residual realization data is available for this portion of the portfolio, and Fitch utilized conservative historical Porsche vehicle model RV loss proxy data for these vehicles when deriving the RV loss proxy for 2015-2.
Higher Average Vehicle Cost: Industry-level data suggest a correlation between vehicle price and residual loss levels in downturns. The 2015-2 pool contains a substantial percentage of leases on high-priced vehicles such as the 911 Turbo, Bentley and Lamborghini, which could be more exposed to residual volatility in an economic downturn. Fitch accounted for this in the derivation of its residual loss assumption.
Low Historical Loss Levels: Credit losses on PFS's portfolio have been low for the past several years. Residual losses on PFS's portfolio throughout the 2008-2009 industry downturn were lower than those of other luxury lease originators, with recent performance in 2014-2015 continues to exhibit residual gains.
Sufficient Credit Enhancement Structure: Loss coverage provided in the 2015-2 structure is sufficient to support a five times multiple of Fitch's base case credit loss expectation of 0.80%, and 'AAAsf' stressed RV loss assumption of 30.6%.
Evolving Wholesale Market: The U.S. wholesale vehicle market has been normalizing following strong performance in recent years. Fitch expects that increasing off-lease vehicle supply and pressure from increased production levels will lead to decreased residual realizations during the life of the transaction.
Stable Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: Fitch believes PFS demonstrates adequate abilities as originator, underwriter, and servicer to service the 2015-2 pool.
Legal Structure Integrity: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of PFS would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case. This in turn could result in Fitch taking negative rating actions on the notes.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to PILOT 2015-2 to increased credit losses over the life of the transaction. Fitch's analysis found that the transaction displays some sensitivity to increased defaults and credit losses. The sensitivity analysis shows that under Fitch's moderate (1.5x base case loss) scenario a rating action is unlikely. The notes could experience downgrades of one rating categories under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss) scenario.
Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the accompanying presale report.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
Fitch was provided with third-party due diligence information from Deloitte & Touche LLP. The third-party due diligence information was provided on Form ABS Due Diligence-15E and focused on a comparison and re-computation of certain characteristics with respect to 100 sample leases. Fitch considered this information in its analysis, and the findings did not affect its analysis.
A copy of the ABS Due Diligence Form-15E received by Fitch in connection with this transaction may be obtained through the link contained on the bottom of the related rating action commentary.
Fitch's analysis of the Representation and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in: 'Porsche Innovative Lease Owner Trust, Series 2015-2 Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in Fitch's June 12, 2015 special report: --'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in the Global Structured Finance Transactions'.
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