Fitch: EMEA Corporate M&A to Trump Shareholder Returns in 2016
We estimate that Fitch-rated European corporates have around EUR84bn available to either spend on growth or return to shareholders in 2016 without weakening their leverage ratios. This contrasts sharply with negative capacity in 2015 (ie spending would lead to rising leverage) and the estimate is largely due to our expectation of improving funds from operations. The estimate factors in our expectations for debt movements, as well as M&A already announced and existing capex plans.
Corporates are still facing weak economic growth across Europe in 2016 and many are therefore likely to prioritise de-risking their balance sheets through limiting shareholders returns and reducing capex. With organic growth hard to find, companies in fragmented sectors will also remain on the lookout for acquisition opportunities to boost revenue and reduce costs. Easy access to cheap funding will support this trend and we expect the supply of capital to remain strong for investment-grade issuers in the near term.
We expect significant M&A activity in 2016 in building materials and construction, gaming, pharmaceuticals, capital goods, and telecoms. Lower company valuations due to weak oil prices have also created opportunities for major oil and gas companies to boost reserves and production capacity through targeted acquisitions.
The chemicals, aerospace and defence, and media and entertainment sectors are likely to have less M&A and therefore also a greater chance of increasing shareholder returns. These sectors have experienced significant M&A activity over the last five years, with opportunities for large acquisitions now diminishing.
A stronger-than-expected economic recovery would initially drive higher investment in capex and research and development, rather than leading to an immediate increase in shareholder returns. But improved confidence in the economic cycle could give non-cyclical industries an incentive to increase returns, funded by increased leverage.
For more details on our expectations for corporate cash utilisation, see the report "EMEA Shareholder Friendliness Lukewarm", available at www.fitchratings.com.
Комментарии