OREANDA-NEWS. A slow down or reversal in performance for credit card ABS in the foreseeable future is unlikely, as macroeconomic conditions are near recent highs, Fitch Ratings says.

U.S. consumer confidence measures have steadily improved this year. After registering in the mid-90s for much of the first half this year, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index reached 103.0 in September, levels last observed in mid-2007. This was largely attributed to improvements in the labor market and expectations of business conditions. The Labor Department reported this month that total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 142,000 in September and that the unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%.

Prime metrics will generally improve within their seasonal ranges. Prime chargeoffs will decline to near or hit new record lows this month. Gross yield and monthly payment rate (MPR), which measures how quickly borrowers pay back their balances, should also slightly rise and remain higher than their year-over-year mark. Prime 60+ delinquencies will remain stable at just under 1%.

Retail metrics will retreat slightly this month but remain strong. Chargeoffs should decline below 6% for the first time since November 2014. Delinquencies more than 60 days past due will increase slightly but remain below 2.5%. Both retail MPR and gross yield are expected to decline.

This preliminary data reflect the September reporting period (as of September 30, 2015) and October distribution date. Actual results will be available in early November.