23.10.2015, 10:17
Fitch Affirms 16 Tranches of Sestante Finance Series; Downgrades Another
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has downgraded one and affirmed 16 tranches of Sestante Finance series, comprising four Italian RMBS originated by Meliorbanca (now part of Banca Popolare dell'Emilia-Romagna, rated BB/Stable/B) and serviced by Italfondiario (rated RSP2+/RSS1-). A full list of rating actions is available at the end of this commentary.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Weak Asset Performance
The Sestante series has reported weak asset performance over the last 12 months, as reflected in high late stage arrears ranging between 4.8% (SF1) and 6.7% (SF4) of the current pool. Meanwhile, cumulative defaults as a percentage of the initial pool increased to between 8.1% in SF1 and 15.9% in SF4, compared with between 7.6% and 14.6% 12 months ago.
In Fitch's view the main cause of the underperformance are large proportions of foreign borrowers, which make up between 12.2% (SF1) and 22.1% (SF4) of the current pool, as well as self-employed borrowers, between 10.4% (SF4) and 26.9% (SF1). In addition, the portfolios comprise a significant portion of increasing instalment loans, between 41.3% (SF2) and 62.7% (SF1) of the current balance. In Fitch's view, the affordability of borrowers who have opted for increasing instalment loans is likely to be constrained once borrowers revert to their full instalments. For this reason Fitch expects such loans to have higher default probabilities (DP) and has increased in its analysis the base DP for these portions of the portfolios.
Limited Recoveries; Extended Recovery Timing
Information on recoveries suggests that as of end-October 2015 recovery procedures have been closed for only 167 loans. The average recovery rate on closed positions is 77% of the outstanding defaulted balance, while the combined recovery rate on open (where the underlying property has been sold at a value that is below the outstanding principal balance of the loan, but the lender is still trying to recover the remaining balance) and closed positions is 60%. This latter rate was used in Fitch's analysis of the transactions, as the agency does not give credit to unsecured recoveries.
The high ratio between total recoveries and gross defaults highlights a long recovery lag, especially in SF2, SF3 and SF4, where it ranges between 14.6% (SF4) and 23.3% (SF2). As a result, in its analysis the agency extended the recovery timing to 12 years for these three transactions from seven previously. The recoveries on both open and closed positions in SF1 are slightly higher at 33.3% and for this reason the recovery timing on this transaction is extended to 10 years from seven previously.
The lengthy recovery timing combined with weak asset performance and increasing principal deficiencies have led to the downgrade of the class C1 note in SF2 to 'CCsf', reflecting Fitch's view that default is probable. These factors are also reflected in the affirmation of the 'CCCsf' and 'CCsf' ratings for the mezzanine and junior notes of SF3 and SF4.
Significant Excess Spread
Gross excess spread for SF2, SF3 and SF4 ranges between 0.9% p.a. (SF3) and 1.3% p.a. (SF2) and is a result of the high spread provided by the hedging agreements in place with Commerzbank (BBB/Positive/F2). Despite the fairly high margin provided by the hedging arrangement for SF1, the transaction structure has been generating negative excess spread of 1% p.a. This is caused by the available revenue in the interest waterfall being used to meet scheduled principal payments on the class A2 notes. Fitch estimates that after the scheduled redemption of this tranche, expected in December 2016, available excess spread will increase to approximately 1% p.a., thus limiting future reserve fund draws. This expectation has been factored into the analysis and is reflected in the affirmation of the notes for SF1.
Commingling Loss
The transaction structure envisages daily transfers of the collections to the account bank, with funds distributed throughout the month. As a result, Fitch has estimated a one-day commingling loss equivalent to 5bp of the current portfolio balance for each transaction. This amount was deducted from the available credit enhancement and the analysis showed that the current credit enhancement available to the notes is sufficient to withstand such stresses.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Changes to Italy's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (BBB+/Stable) and the rating cap for Italian structured finance transactions, currently 'AA+sf', could trigger rating changes on the notes rated at this level.
Lower recovery rates or foreclosure timings in excess of Fitch's assumptions would trigger negative rating actions.
The rating actions are as follows:
Sestante Finance S.r.l. (SF1):
Class A1 (ISIN IT0003604789): affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class A2 (ISIN IT0003604813): affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0003604839): affirmed at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class C (ISIN IT0003604854): affirmed at 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Stable
Sestante Finance 2 S.r.l. - 2 (SF2):
Class A (ISIN IT0003760136): affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0003760193): affirmed at 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Negative
Class C1 (ISIN IT0003760227): downgraded to 'CCsf' from 'CCCsf'; RE (recovery estimate) of 40%
Class C2 (ISIN IT0003760243): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Sestante Finance S.r.l. - 3 (SF3):
Class A (ISIN IT0003937452): affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0003937486): affirmed at 'CCCsf'; RE of 80%
Class C1 (ISIN IT0003937510): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Class C2 (ISIN IT0003937569): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Sestante Finance S.r.l. - 4 (SF4):
Class A1 (ISIN IT0004158124): affirmed at 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable
Class A2 (ISIN IT0004158157): affirmed at 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0004158165): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Class C1 (ISIN IT0004158249): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Class C2 (ISIN IT0004158264): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information it has received about the performance of the asset pool and the transaction. There were no findings that were material to this analysis. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about the underlying asset pool ahead of the transaction's initial closing. The subsequent performance of the transaction over the years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis was adequately reliable.
Overall, Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
The information below was used in the analysis:
-Loan-by-loan data provided by Italfondiario as of 31 August 2015 for SF1 and SF2, 15 August 2015 for SF3 and 30 June 2015 for SF4.
-Loan level enforcement data dated October 2014 for SF1, SF2, SF3, and SF4 provided by Italfondiario.
-Transaction reporting provided by Italfondiario as of 31 August 2015 for SF1, 30 June 2015 for SF2, 25 June 2015 for SF3 and SF4.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Weak Asset Performance
The Sestante series has reported weak asset performance over the last 12 months, as reflected in high late stage arrears ranging between 4.8% (SF1) and 6.7% (SF4) of the current pool. Meanwhile, cumulative defaults as a percentage of the initial pool increased to between 8.1% in SF1 and 15.9% in SF4, compared with between 7.6% and 14.6% 12 months ago.
In Fitch's view the main cause of the underperformance are large proportions of foreign borrowers, which make up between 12.2% (SF1) and 22.1% (SF4) of the current pool, as well as self-employed borrowers, between 10.4% (SF4) and 26.9% (SF1). In addition, the portfolios comprise a significant portion of increasing instalment loans, between 41.3% (SF2) and 62.7% (SF1) of the current balance. In Fitch's view, the affordability of borrowers who have opted for increasing instalment loans is likely to be constrained once borrowers revert to their full instalments. For this reason Fitch expects such loans to have higher default probabilities (DP) and has increased in its analysis the base DP for these portions of the portfolios.
Limited Recoveries; Extended Recovery Timing
Information on recoveries suggests that as of end-October 2015 recovery procedures have been closed for only 167 loans. The average recovery rate on closed positions is 77% of the outstanding defaulted balance, while the combined recovery rate on open (where the underlying property has been sold at a value that is below the outstanding principal balance of the loan, but the lender is still trying to recover the remaining balance) and closed positions is 60%. This latter rate was used in Fitch's analysis of the transactions, as the agency does not give credit to unsecured recoveries.
The high ratio between total recoveries and gross defaults highlights a long recovery lag, especially in SF2, SF3 and SF4, where it ranges between 14.6% (SF4) and 23.3% (SF2). As a result, in its analysis the agency extended the recovery timing to 12 years for these three transactions from seven previously. The recoveries on both open and closed positions in SF1 are slightly higher at 33.3% and for this reason the recovery timing on this transaction is extended to 10 years from seven previously.
The lengthy recovery timing combined with weak asset performance and increasing principal deficiencies have led to the downgrade of the class C1 note in SF2 to 'CCsf', reflecting Fitch's view that default is probable. These factors are also reflected in the affirmation of the 'CCCsf' and 'CCsf' ratings for the mezzanine and junior notes of SF3 and SF4.
Significant Excess Spread
Gross excess spread for SF2, SF3 and SF4 ranges between 0.9% p.a. (SF3) and 1.3% p.a. (SF2) and is a result of the high spread provided by the hedging agreements in place with Commerzbank (BBB/Positive/F2). Despite the fairly high margin provided by the hedging arrangement for SF1, the transaction structure has been generating negative excess spread of 1% p.a. This is caused by the available revenue in the interest waterfall being used to meet scheduled principal payments on the class A2 notes. Fitch estimates that after the scheduled redemption of this tranche, expected in December 2016, available excess spread will increase to approximately 1% p.a., thus limiting future reserve fund draws. This expectation has been factored into the analysis and is reflected in the affirmation of the notes for SF1.
Commingling Loss
The transaction structure envisages daily transfers of the collections to the account bank, with funds distributed throughout the month. As a result, Fitch has estimated a one-day commingling loss equivalent to 5bp of the current portfolio balance for each transaction. This amount was deducted from the available credit enhancement and the analysis showed that the current credit enhancement available to the notes is sufficient to withstand such stresses.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Changes to Italy's Long-term Issuer Default Rating (BBB+/Stable) and the rating cap for Italian structured finance transactions, currently 'AA+sf', could trigger rating changes on the notes rated at this level.
Lower recovery rates or foreclosure timings in excess of Fitch's assumptions would trigger negative rating actions.
The rating actions are as follows:
Sestante Finance S.r.l. (SF1):
Class A1 (ISIN IT0003604789): affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class A2 (ISIN IT0003604813): affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0003604839): affirmed at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class C (ISIN IT0003604854): affirmed at 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Stable
Sestante Finance 2 S.r.l. - 2 (SF2):
Class A (ISIN IT0003760136): affirmed at 'AA+sf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0003760193): affirmed at 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Negative
Class C1 (ISIN IT0003760227): downgraded to 'CCsf' from 'CCCsf'; RE (recovery estimate) of 40%
Class C2 (ISIN IT0003760243): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Sestante Finance S.r.l. - 3 (SF3):
Class A (ISIN IT0003937452): affirmed at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0003937486): affirmed at 'CCCsf'; RE of 80%
Class C1 (ISIN IT0003937510): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Class C2 (ISIN IT0003937569): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Sestante Finance S.r.l. - 4 (SF4):
Class A1 (ISIN IT0004158124): affirmed at 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable
Class A2 (ISIN IT0004158157): affirmed at 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable
Class B (ISIN IT0004158165): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Class C1 (ISIN IT0004158249): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
Class C2 (ISIN IT0004158264): affirmed at 'CCsf'; RE of 0%
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the information it has received about the performance of the asset pool and the transaction. There were no findings that were material to this analysis. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about the underlying asset pool ahead of the transaction's initial closing. The subsequent performance of the transaction over the years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis was adequately reliable.
Overall, Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
The information below was used in the analysis:
-Loan-by-loan data provided by Italfondiario as of 31 August 2015 for SF1 and SF2, 15 August 2015 for SF3 and 30 June 2015 for SF4.
-Loan level enforcement data dated October 2014 for SF1, SF2, SF3, and SF4 provided by Italfondiario.
-Transaction reporting provided by Italfondiario as of 31 August 2015 for SF1, 30 June 2015 for SF2, 25 June 2015 for SF3 and SF4.
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