OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd's (PGCIL) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-'. The Outlook is Stable. At the same time, the agency has affirmed PGCIL's senior unsecured rating and the ratings on its USD500m senior unsecured notes at 'BBB-'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Regulatory Revenues: PGCIL's rating benefits from the regulatory nature of its revenue, which has no offtake risks. The latest five-year regulatory tariff period extends to the financial year ending 31 March 2019 (FY19). The revenue is based on return on equity, which has been maintained at 15.5%, and full pass-through of all the fixed costs that are within regulatory norms, including actual interest charges. The company has no offtake risks as long as it meets the regulatory operational benchmarks - availability of 98% for alternating current systems and 95% for high voltage direct current systems. Power Grid has maintained its availability for both systems at well over 99% over the years; in FY15, it was 99.78%.

Dominant Player: Power Grid's ratings also benefit from its very strong market position. The company owns around 90% of India's interstate and inter-regional electricity transmission network assets. India's transmission network is two-tiered, with the intra-state transmission networks being handled mainly by the state utilities. Overall, PGCIL carried around 46% of the electricity in India in FY15.

Weak Counterparty Profile: PGCIL's counterparties - which are mainly state utilities - have weak financial profiles. However, PGCIL has managed to maintain a good receivable collection track record with timely realisation of 97%. Its healthy receivable position is due to the critical nature of its transmission assets as the dominant interstate transmission provider in India. In addition, transmission cost payments to PGCIL form only a small proportion of a state utility's total costs, with the largest payments going to generation companies. The company also benefits from the tripartite arrangement between the state government, the central government and the central bank, which presently runs up to October 2016, to ensure timely payments to PGCIL, and the presence of letters of credit for 105% of the average monthly revenues.

Credit Metrics Likely to Improve: PGCIL's net leverage as measured by net debt/EBITDA has continued to remain at around 6x given the high capex levels of around INR250bn a year. At FYE15, leverage was 6.2x due to slower-than-expected commissioning of new transmission assets. Fitch expects leverage to fall to around 5.5x by FY17, as assets under construction are commissioned leading to an increase in revenues and profits. Over the years, the company has maintained net debt/total fixed assets at around 65%. These metrics and the company's strong business profile are supportive of a standalone credit profile of 'BBB'. PGCIL continues to enjoy a robust liquidity profile, with a well-laddered debt maturity profile and strong access to domestic and international capital markets.

Ratings Constrained by Sovereign: PGCIL's IDR, which is a notch below its standalone credit profile of 'BBB', is constrained by the 'BBB-' IDR of its 57.9% owner, India. Fitch assesses PGCIL's linkages with the Indian state to be moderate to strong. The legal linkages are moderate with the government guaranteeing around 20% of the total debt. The operational linkages are moderate while the strategic linkages are high as PGCIL is the Central Transmission Utility in the country, and is a key policy implementation tool for the electricity industry.

Material Secured Indebtedness: PGCIL has substantial secured debt. At FYE15, around 93.7% of the total debt is secured against its tangible assets. As such, Fitch rates its senior unsecured debt one notch below its unconstrained rating of 'BBB'.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include:
- ROE of 15.5%, based on the regulatory framework
- All costs, including depreciation and interest costs, are passed through
- Capex remains elevated in the medium term, broadly in-line with that in FY14 and FY15

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Negative: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include
- A downgrade of India's ratings
- PGCIL's standalone credit profile could be lowered if its net leverage rises above 6x, fixed-charge cover - including capitalised interest - falls below 2.5x (FY15: 2.3x), and the net debt/ total fixed assets increases beyond 70% on a sustained basis. Should this happen, PGCIL's senior unsecured rating is also likely to be lowered given the material secured debt.

Positive: Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action include
-An upgrade in India's rating to 'BBB'. This would result in an upgrade in the IDR, though the senior unsecured rating would remain unchanged
- Fitch does not expect an improvement in the standalone credit profile in the next 12-18 months.