Fitch: Internationalisation of Chinese Banks Driven by Policy Objectives
The agency believes rapid expansion of overseas projects may add pressure on bank leverage, given the nature of these offshore activities and their links to China's current strategic and political priorities. Asset allocation decisions could also be compromised by policy imperatives. That said, Fitch expects bank internationalisation to underpin the state's propensity to support banks.
The OBOR initiative envisages Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa. A portion of OBOR lending will also go to domestic projects, notably infrastructure construction in western China.
China's push for OBOR, with its emphasis on creating demand for large-scale capital-intensive infrastructure investments abroad, aims to relieve (but not resolve) urgent overcapacity pressures and buy time for domestic rebalancing. At the same time, the initiative channels surplus domestic savings away from less-productive domestic uses, contributing to acceleration in net capital outflows.
Fitch estimates that Chinese banks' outstanding offshore loans approached USD1trn at end-2014, having risen at an annual compound rate of 34% since 2007.
Two policy banks - China Development Bank Corporation (A+/Stable) and Export-Import Bank of China (A+/Stable) - are leading China's infrastructure lending to developing economies, and they provide financing for the purchase of Chinese construction services and industrial equipment. China has committed USD179bn from its foreign-exchange reserves to bolster its policy banks and other capital-exporting financial institutions, including CNY50bn for the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
China's largest commercial lenders have also announced lending targets in support of OBOR. So far Bank of China Ltd. (A/Stable), China Construction Bank Corporation (A/Stable), and China CITIC Bank (BBB/Stable) have publicised plans for a combined USD198bn in new lending for OBOR projects, equivalent to 36% of their end-1H15 capital. The banks may need to raise more capital to fund these plans.
The full report is available on www.fitchratings.com.
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