OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Catchment Tay Limited's outstanding GBP66.1m senior secured notes due 2028 at 'BBB-' with Stable Outlook.

The affirmation reflects Catchment Tay's stable performance despite some operational issues, which are being managed. The rating is further supported by sufficient liquidity to deal with the operational issues, stable revenue profile and low exposure to volume risk.

Catchment Tay operates a wastewater treatment system in the Dundee area of eastern Scotland under a private finance initiative (PFI) contract with Scottish Water, which expires in December 2029. The project has been operating since November 2001.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Volume Risk Largely Mitigated - Revenue Risk - Volume: Midrange
The exposure of Catchment Tay to volume risk is limited since the revised tariff payment mechanism was put in place, based on price banding and volumes of treated wastewater. Although the volumes of treated waste water in 2015 are expected to be some 10% lower than the budgeted 37.4m cubic meters as a result of lower rainfall in the area, this only has a small impact on revenue received by the project.

Tariff Framework Implementation Further Delayed - Revenue Risk - Price: Midrange
The revised tariff framework is robust as it effectively reduces revenue volatility through altered tariffs and water volume thresholds. Band 1 of the tariff represents around 80% of treated waste water volumes and is sufficient to meet debt service obligations. Nearly half of revenues are indexed to RPI. Despite significant delay in formal implementation of the revised tariff framework, it has in practice been consistently applied since 2009.

Operational Issues Tackled - Operation Risk: Midrange
Catchment Tay passes on most of its operational risks to Veolia Water Operational Services, a subsidiary of Veolia Water UK, a seasoned and strong operator, which Fitch considers positive for the transaction. The project benefits from the operator's parent company guarantee (PCG), although it is still provided by United Utilities (a former sponsor). The transfer of the PCG to Veolia Water UK is to be completed in due course and is viewed as credit neutral. There were no non-compliance deductions recorded in the past year and only one non-compliance day since the start of the operations.

A fire occurred in the sludge dryer plant in 1Q15, which caused damage. However, Catchment Tay's operations were not affected as the project used an alternative sludge disposal method. The repair cost due to the fire was fully borne by the operator without significant impact on the project.

Catchment Tay started the repairs of the five sludge tanks, which are affected by corrosion by lining the tanks with a cement layer. One tank has been already repaired and works are expected to be completed by the end of 2016. The cost of repairs is estimated at GBP2.2m and is now fully included in the project's budgets. The impact on projected debt metrics is manageable with a minimum forecast debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.17x for December 2016 as per Fitch rating case. Although the company may be able to recover some of these costs from contractors Fitch has conservatively accounted for the full cost in its projections at this stage.

Well Managed Capital Programme - Infrastructure Development and Renewal: Midrange
The majority of the lifecycle and operating and maintenance costs are the responsibility of the operator. The operator introduced the use of a new maintenance scheduling tool, which provides historical information on asset performance and should optimise capital maintenance costs.

Catchment Tay retains responsibility for the lifecycle costs mainly related to pipeline works, which are mitigated by a limited, well-budgeted work schedule, satisfactory inspections/monitoring regime and a forward-looking maintenance reserve account. The technical advisor has assessed that Catchment Tay's lifecycle cost forecast is conservative and reasonable.

Simple Amortising Debt Structure - Debt Structure: Stronger
The rated debt is fully amortising with a one-year tail. The financing structure is fairly simple, with no interest rate, inflation or cross-currency risks or need for hedging.

Financial Metrics
The historical annual DSCR stood at 1.42x as of 30 June 2015, which is comfortably above lock-up levels. Financial metrics (minimum/average forward-looking annual DSCR and minimum loan life coverage ratio) under Fitch's rating case are 1.17x /1.50x and 1.61x. The minimum DSCR of 1.17x projected for December 2016 has been impacted by the additional cost of sludge tanks' repairs.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Positive:
Formal approval of the revised tariff mechanism, coupled with continued stable operational and financial performance and successful completion of sludge tanks' repairs.

Negative:
A long-term reduction in treated wastewater volume below levels assumed in Fitch rating case, poor operational performance and higher-than-projected lifecycle costs.