Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker Update
OREANDA-NEWS. Sberbank Investment Research, the research department of Sberbank CIB, is publishing its thirteenth survey of the pan-Russian consumer, the Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker, which monitors consumer spending, savings and confidence trends across the country.
The thirteenth tracker shows a drop in the consumer confidence index from -14% in 2Q15 to -24% last quarter. The Ivanovs' distinct optimism of 2Q15 was replaced by a balanced assessment of the economic situation in 3Q15, as the drop in oil prices and the ruble resumed. High inflation and stalling nominal wage growth are not contributing to spending power and spur increased price sensitivity.
The index of country wealth for the next 12 months decreased from 5% in 2Q15 to -9% last quarter. The national wealth indicator over the past 12 months fell from -29% to -44%.
Sberbank Investment Research view this as a result of the increased percentage of Ivanovs who see the Russian economy as shaky, mainly due to fears over higher inflation, ruble depreciation and unemployment. We generally tend to interpret this drop as a sobering effect after the artificially strong 2Q15, when Ivanovs made overly optimistic assessments of their personal and national welfare.
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