OREANDA-NEWS. September 28, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Italian City of Busto Arsizio's (BA) Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB+' and its Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F2'. The Outlook is Stable.

The affirmation reflects the city's stable operating performance and continued moderate debt. The ratings also reflect BA's sound liquidity position and wealthy socio-economic profile supporting a strong tax base. BA's standalone profile remains constrained by Italy's IDR due to a lack of financial autonomy.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Stable Fiscal Performance: Fitch believes BA will continue to post a balanced budget and solid operating performance over the medium term, with an estimated operating balance of around 8%. Further cuts in state subsidies will continue to be absorbed by continued tight cost control and growing revenue towards EUR70m by 2017 (from EUR67m in 2014), given the city's budgetary leeway (about 15% of budget, notably on personal income tax, waste collection rates and fees on services provided). Contingent upon the relaxation/cancellation of stability pact rules, Fitch expects BA to promote new investments totalling EUR15m in 2016-2017, mainly funded by own resources.

Moderate Debt and Solid Liquidity: BA's financial debt totalled EUR26m at end-2014 or 40% of the budget. Fitch expects it to remain modest, as repayments will offset EUR8m of new borrowing for capital spending in 2016-2017, with debt service totally covered by operating balance. Fitch believes that the rationalisation of subsidiaries, via sales and mergers, will allow BA's net indirect risk to decline towards EUR10m over the medium term (from EUR19.3m at end-2014). We also expect the city to maintain its traditionally solid cash position at around EUR20m in 2015-2016, covering debt service requirements by more than 1x.

Sound Economy: BA continues to maintain solid economic indicators, being located in one of the most developed industrial and commercial areas in Italy. Local unemployment rate stands at around 8% at mid-2015, in line with regional and below national levels (12%). After an almost stagnant 2014, Fitch expects GDP will grow 1%, sustained by tourist and commercial activities related to the World Exposition EXPO 2015, and by the traditional sectors (chemicals/pharmaceuticals, machinery and transports), which continue to support the city's tax base.

Political Continuity: Fitch factors in continuity in the administration's strategy over the medium term. The administration maintains a prudent budgetary and financial policy, enabling the city to maintain solid operating performance and high level of services despite subsidies curtailment. Fitch takes a positive view of one of the administration's priorities to maintain sizable free reserves (6% of current revenue at end-2014), as a buffer against unpredictable events, since the fund balance of EUR27m at end-2014, or 40% of operating revenue, is largely earmarked for investment and impaired receivables.

Neutral Institutional Relations: Fitch considers inter-governmental relations as neutral for BA's ratings, as benefits from national state support, such as transfers and assistance in case of unexpected events, are offset by the city's contribution to Italy's consolidation efforts to balance the national accounts, by means of revenue curtailments.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
A positive rating action on Italy's ratings would lead to a similar rating action on BA, provided the city continues to perform in line with Fitch's projections.

Conversely, debt service (including principal repayment)-to-operating balance below 1x, as well as a substantial deterioration in economic conditions impacting budgetary performance, could prompt a downgrade. Also a downgrade of the sovereign would be reflected on BA's ratings.